MD 0957 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR WESTERN KS AND EAST-CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST CO
Mesoscale Discussion 0957
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 PM CDT Tue Jun 06 2017
Areas affected...Western KS and east-central to southeast CO
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 062048Z - 062315Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms will remain possible this
afternoon into the early evening across western KS into east-central
and southeast CO. Locally strong wind gusts and some hail will be
the primary severe risks. Given a low probability for storm
organization, WW issuance remains unlikely.
DISCUSSION...Trends in mosaic radar imagery and cloud-top cooling
(per IR satellite imagery) indicated thunderstorms continued to
develop this afternoon in vicinity of a couple surface boundaries
analyzed from southeast CO into northwest KS, and then southeast
into south-central KS. This activity has developed within a
moderately unstable environment, though bulk shear is relatively
weak resulting in pulse-type storms, and a limited potential for
supercells. Modest midlevel lapse rates (6.5-7 C/km) and the weak
bulk shear suggest a low probability for severe hail, while DCAPE
around 1000 J/kg per objective analyses suggests strong wind gusts
should be the greatest severe-weather threat.
..Peters/Guyer.. 06/06/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GID...DDC...GLD...PUB...
LAT...LON 37720289 38530269 39140183 39410100 39679982 39059951
37469923 37319971 37740054 37750112 37580196 37390231
37380264 37720289
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2s1Sknj
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