SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with isolated severe wind gusts and hail, will be possible on Tuesday in parts of the central and northern High Plains westward into the northern Rockies. ...Central and Northern High Plains/Northern Rockies... A shortwave trough in the northern Plains is forecast to deamplify on Tuesday. Elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing near the trough at the start of the period in the central Dakotas. Further west, an upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the central and northern High Plains. Beneath the ridge, a north-to-south corridor of maximized low-level moisture will destabilize during the day, with pockets of moderate instability likely developing by afternoon. Although large-scale ascent should be weak due to the upper ridge, topographical forcing and low-level convergence is expected to result in isolated convective initiation. A few storms should develop in the afternoon, from central and eastern Montana southward into western Nebraska and eastern Colorado. Forecast soundings in the central and northern High Plains during the mid to late afternoon have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 knot range, mostly owing to speed shear in the mid-levels. In addition, low-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep, with relatively large surface temperature-dewpoint spreads. This environment will likely be favorable for high-based storms capable of isolated severe wind gusts and hail. ..Broyles.. 08/19/2024
