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SPC Aug 28, 2024 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024

Valid 280100Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging thunderstorm winds and
isolated large hail remain possible across the southern Great Lakes
region and portions of the Midwest tonight.

...01z Update...

Upper ridge is flattening across the Great Lakes this evening in
response to a progressive short-wave trough advancing east across
the upper MS Valley. This feature will deamplify as it shifts into
the central Great Lakes by 28/12z. Westerly flow is gradually
deepening across this region and low-level convergence is not
particularly focused, though a synoptic front does currently extend
from northern Lower MI/south-central WI arcing into southern NE.
Multiple thunderstorm complexes have spread across WI/MI with the
leading edge of one MCS now advancing southeast of Lake Erie. This
activity should struggle as it propagates into eastern OH/western PA
as buoyancy is not particularly strong across this portion of the OH
Valley. Upstream along the trailing synoptic front, a reservoir of
extreme instability has yet to be overturned from northern IL into
northern MO. Robust convection is tracking southeast along a lake
breeze near the Chicago metro. These storms will propagate into
northern IN over the next several hours with an attendant risk for
hail/wind.

Farther southwest, weaker steering currents are contributing to
slow-moving clusters along the front across northern MO into
northeast KS. This activity will be more deviant in storm motion due
to weak flow, driven largely by convective outflow and the presence
of extreme instability. Hail/wind remain possible with these storms.

..Darrow.. 08/28/2024

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