SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging thunderstorm winds and isolated large hail remain possible across the southern Great Lakes region and portions of the Midwest tonight. ...01z Update... Upper ridge is flattening across the Great Lakes this evening in response to a progressive short-wave trough advancing east across the upper MS Valley. This feature will deamplify as it shifts into the central Great Lakes by 28/12z. Westerly flow is gradually deepening across this region and low-level convergence is not particularly focused, though a synoptic front does currently extend from northern Lower MI/south-central WI arcing into southern NE. Multiple thunderstorm complexes have spread across WI/MI with the leading edge of one MCS now advancing southeast of Lake Erie. This activity should struggle as it propagates into eastern OH/western PA as buoyancy is not particularly strong across this portion of the OH Valley. Upstream along the trailing synoptic front, a reservoir of extreme instability has yet to be overturned from northern IL into northern MO. Robust convection is tracking southeast along a lake breeze near the Chicago metro. These storms will propagate into northern IN over the next several hours with an attendant risk for hail/wind. Farther southwest, weaker steering currents are contributing to slow-moving clusters along the front across northern MO into northeast KS. This activity will be more deviant in storm motion due to weak flow, driven largely by convective outflow and the presence of extreme instability. Hail/wind remain possible with these storms. ..Darrow.. 08/28/2024
