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SPC MD 107


MD 0107 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0107
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0524 PM CST Wed Jan 25 2023

Areas affected...portions of the eastern Carolinas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 252324Z - 260030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A broken line of thunderstorms will move eastward through
the region during the next few hours. Isolated damaging wind gusts
and a couple of tornadoes are possible with these storms.

DISCUSSION...A semi-continuous convective line with embedded
supercell structures is moving eastward ahead of a cold front
surging southward through north-central NC. The region ahead of the
convection is characterized by a humid and sheared boundary layer.
Temperatures are generally in the mid to upper 60s F with dewpoints
in the low to mid 60s F. 23z RAP forecast profiles in the region
show an enlarged wind profile containing around 40 kts of 0-1
southerly shear and 0-3-km SRH around 300+ J/kg. Some surface
inhibition may exist (e.g., up to 50 J/kg SBCIN over the cooler
near-shore waters) and temper the threat somewhat, but observed
temperatures in some areas are 1-2 degrees F greater than forecast
thermodynamic profiles. This environment is supportive of rotating
updrafts (as evidenced by the numerous discrete supercells offshore)
and associated hazards. The primary hazards would be isolated
damaging winds and possibly a couple of tornadoes if any embedded
segments within the convective line continue to strengthen.

..Flournoy/Moore/Grams.. 01/25/2023

...Please see for graphic product...


LAT...LON   33107952 33917934 34667871 35497761 35977687 36097605
            35907532 35637515 35237522 35017539 34907577 34467625
            34347653 34387704 34047760 33737769 33647789 33547862
            33067897 33107952 

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