SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO FAR EASTERN WYOMING AND ADJACENT FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon from northeast Colorado into far eastern Wyoming and adjacent far western South Dakota and the Nebraska Panhandle. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper pattern early Thursday will likely be characterized by an expansive upper ridge extending from the Southwest into western Canada and an upper trough extending from western Ontario int the Mid MS Valley. The western ridging is expected to persist throughout the period, while the eastern troughing deamplifies as an embedded shortwave trough progresses eastward across Ontario, the Lower Great Lakes and New England. The surface pattern will likely feature a strong high over the Upper Midwest Thursday morning, with this high expected to gradually shift eastward throughout the day. A cold front is expected along the southern and eastern periphery of this high, beginning the period extended from NJ southwestward across the TN Valley and Mid-South into north TX. Some modest southeasterly/southerly progress of this front is possible throughout the day, but it is also expected to become increasingly diffuse. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are possible along this boundary, but weak vertical shear should limit the severe potential. Modest low-level moisture advection is anticipated along the western periphery of this surface ridging, combining with daytime heating to provide airmass destabilization. Low-level convergence along the lee trough may result in convective initiation from northeast CO into far eastern WY and adjacent far western SD and the NE Panhandle. Belt of moderate mid-level flow extending across the region will help support enough vertical shear for storm organization and the potential for a few severe storms capable of damaging gusts. ..Mosier.. 07/16/2024
