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SPC MD 108


MD 0108 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0108
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0707 PM CST Wed Jan 25 2023

Areas affected...northeastern NY and northern New England

Concerning...Heavy snow 

Valid 260107Z - 260700Z

SUMMARY...Local heavy snowfall rates of 1-2"/hr are possible during
the next several hours in northeastern NY and portions of northern
New England.

DISCUSSION...Bands of heavier snowfall rates are currently being
observed in northeastern NY and northern VT. These are associated
with a weak surface warm front extending from around the Finger
Lakes region northeastward toward northern VT and NH. The broad warm
and moist advection collocated with moderate mid-level lapse rates
(6-7 C/km from 700-500 mb) is expected to persist as the attendant
surface cyclone slowly deepens over Lake Erie. These bands are
expected to translate northeastward and pose the shortest-term
threat for heavier snowfall rates.

Lighter snowfall rates are ongoing to the south in east-central NY.
However, stronger 850-mb frontogenesis is forecast to develop by
around 03z in this area per recent HREF guidance. This should
quickly "fill in" this area around this time and translate to the
northeast over the ensuing few hours (around 03-07z). The most
likely areas of heavier snowfall rates (possibly up to 2"/hr
locally) should drape through central VT, NH, and western ME as this
forcing passes through. The eastern periphery of the MCD shows were
the heaviest snowfall rates are likely around 07z; at this point,
downstream areas may be highlighted for the potential for heavy
snowfall rates if this evolution persists.

..Flournoy/Moore.. 01/26/2023

...Please see for graphic product...


LAT...LON   44997482 44997302 45017154 45297132 45387086 45587065
            45766967 45426878 44656894 44017028 43637127 43357254
            43487354 43927488 44667553 44997482 

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