MD 0108 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR NORTHEASTERN NY AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 0108 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0707 PM CST Wed Jan 25 2023 Areas affected...northeastern NY and northern New England Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 260107Z - 260700Z SUMMARY...Local heavy snowfall rates of 1-2"/hr are possible during the next several hours in northeastern NY and portions of northern New England. DISCUSSION...Bands of heavier snowfall rates are currently being observed in northeastern NY and northern VT. These are associated with a weak surface warm front extending from around the Finger Lakes region northeastward toward northern VT and NH. The broad warm and moist advection collocated with moderate mid-level lapse rates (6-7 C/km from 700-500 mb) is expected to persist as the attendant surface cyclone slowly deepens over Lake Erie. These bands are expected to translate northeastward and pose the shortest-term threat for heavier snowfall rates. Lighter snowfall rates are ongoing to the south in east-central NY. However, stronger 850-mb frontogenesis is forecast to develop by around 03z in this area per recent HREF guidance. This should quickly "fill in" this area around this time and translate to the northeast over the ensuing few hours (around 03-07z). The most likely areas of heavier snowfall rates (possibly up to 2"/hr locally) should drape through central VT, NH, and western ME as this forcing passes through. The eastern periphery of the MCD shows were the heaviest snowfall rates are likely around 07z; at this point, downstream areas may be highlighted for the potential for heavy snowfall rates if this evolution persists. ..Flournoy/Moore.. 01/26/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...ALY... LAT...LON 44997482 44997302 45017154 45297132 45387086 45587065 45766967 45426878 44656894 44017028 43637127 43357254 43487354 43927488 44667553 44997482