MD 0109 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NC AND THE OUTER BANKS
Mesoscale Discussion 0109
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0828 PM CST Wed Jan 25 2023
Areas affected...portions of eastern NC and the Outer Banks
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 260228Z - 260430Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A broken line of thunderstorms continues to advance
eastward through eastern NC toward the Outer Banks. Expected threats
include isolated damaging wind gusts and possibly a tornado or two.
DISCUSSION...A quasi-linear convective system continues to move
eastward ahead of a cold front draped through central NC. The
environment ahead of the system is locally supportive of severe
hazards and is characterized by dewpoints in the mid 60s and
temperatures in the upper 60s. The 00z MHX raob revealed a
thermodynamic profile with 0-3-km lapse rates around 5 C/km and
MLCAPE around 300 J/kg. The kinematic environment featured very
strong low-level veering shear with 0-3-km SRH above 750 J/kg; the
current KMHX VAD shows slightly more veered surface flow and lower,
but still large, 0-3-km SRH around 450 J/kg. This could support
local damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado or two with
any quasi-sustained mesovortices, but the overall coverage of these
hazards is expected to be low.
To the east, a few discrete supercells are expected to continue
propagating northeastward on the eastern edge of the forecast area.
Due to the kinematic support, most of these storms have developed
strong mesocyclones. However, they are largely forecast to remain
offshore and any impacts to barrier islands should be somewhat
tempered by the cooler coastal waters.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 35017721 35457717 35787688 35937642 35807584 35617544
35387517 35287516 34987528 34857569 34697589 34517611
34467644 34577699 34867720 35017721