MD 1968 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PARTS OF WESTERN/NORTHERN NEW YORK
Mesoscale Discussion 1968 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0640 AM CST Sun Nov 20 2022 Areas affected...Parts of western/northern New York Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 201240Z - 201815Z SUMMARY...A heavy lake-enhanced snow band will likely persist through the day, with rates of 3-4 inches per hour possible closer to the lake, and 1-2 inches per hour possible farther east into parts of the Mohawk Valley by late morning. DISCUSSION...An ongoing lake-enhanced snow band over Lake Ontario and adjacent portions of western/northern New York is expected to undergo some reorientation through the day today, with low-midlevel flow gradually veering to more of a west to west-northwesterly direction with time as the deep longwave trough over the region shifts eastward. Steep tropospheric lapse rates and very cold temperatures aloft (-15 C at 850 mb and -27 C at 700 mb on 12Z BUF sounding) will continue to support sufficient instability for the maintenance of locally intense snow rates of 3+ inches per hour. As the band takes on a more west-northwest to east-southeast orientation, the heaviest snow is expected to shift gradually southward across parts of Oswego, southern Lewis, and northern Oneida Counties. Favorable instability and surface convergence could also support localized rates of 1-2 inches per hour along the eastward extension of the snow band into parts of the Mohawk Valley by late morning. In addition to the heavy snow rates, increasing low-level flow will support strong winds (with gusts in the 30-45 mph range), which will exacerbate low-visibility concerns in areas that experience the heavier snow rates. ..Dean.. 11/20/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF... LAT...LON 43587696 43647585 43587511 43367473 43127453 42927461 43047605 43207710 43457728 43587696