MD 2288 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TO CENTRAL KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2288
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 PM CST Sat Nov 25 2023
Areas affected...Northwest Oklahoma to central Kansas
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 251858Z - 260000Z
SUMMARY...The potential for periods of heavy snow (snowfall rates
exceeding 1 inch/hour) will steadily increase through the afternoon
and early evening hours across northwest OK and southern to central
KS.
DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, a few surface observations across
south-central KS have reported periods of visibility reductions down
to 0.25 mile, indicative of heavy snowfall rates. Such conditions
are expected to become more common through the remainder of the
afternoon and early evening hours. Latest water-vapor imagery shows
the exit region of the 500 mb jet overspreading the TX/OK Panhandles
region; concurrently, regional VWP observations have sampled
strengthening flow in the 1-2 km layer - likely a mass response
associated with the approaching jet. Consequently, both synoptic and
mesoscale ascent (isentropic and frontogenetical lift within a warm
advection regime near 850 mb) appear to be increasing over the
region. Upstream radar trends support this idea with a gradually
expanding swath of stratiform precipitation noted over the eastern
TX Panhandle. This lift/precipitation will shift east through the
afternoon and evening hours, resulting in gradual change over to
primarily snow across parts of northwest OK as well as a prolonged
period of moderate snowfall rates across southern KS. Strong
mesoscale ascent along the 850 mb baroclinic zone, coupled with weak
(< 50 J/kg MUCAPE) buoyancy, should result in periods of heavy
snowfall with rates approaching 1 inch/hour.
..Moore.. 11/25/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...
LAT...LON 38279599 36179817 35939855 35819888 35839930 35939963
36249984 36529987 36809976 39229712 39379682 39329640
38939575 38619580 38279599
