MD 0093 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST…FAR SOUTHWEST LA
Mesoscale Discussion 0093 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2023 Areas affected...Middle/Upper TX Coast...Far Southwest LA Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 241616Z - 241815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Environmental conditions along the middle/upper TX coast into southwest LA will support supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes, this afternoon. A Tornado Watch will be needed along the middle /upper TX coast to southwest LA within the next hour or so. DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a low about 30 miles northwest of NIR in northern Bea County TX. A warm front extends east-northeastward from this low through Galveston Bay and then off the far southeast TX coast. The air mass south of this warm front is characterized by temperatures in the low 70s/upper 60s and dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s. Expectation is for this front to gradually lift northward as the surface low transitions east-northeastward. As it does, modest surface-based buoyancy is anticipated across the middle and upper TX coast. Robust low-level wind fields are also in place, with mesoanalysis estimating 50-60 kt at 850 mb from CRP vicinity northward into southeast TX. Southeasterly surface winds exist throughout the warm sector, resulting in strong low-level vertical shear. Recent VAD profiles from CRP and HGX sampled 300 m2/s2 and 800 m2/s2 of 0-1 km storm-relative helicity. Increasing thunderstorm coverage is anticipated throughout the afternoon, and these environmental conditions are expected to support strong to severe thunderstorms. More linear development is anticipated along the front south of the low, but some potential for discrete warm-sector development exists as well. Any discrete storms would likely become supercellular with the potential for all severe hazards, including tornadoes. Given the strong low-level shear, a strong tornado is possible. Large hail and damaging wind gusts are also possible. As a result, a Tornado Watch will be needed along the middle/upper TX coast in far southwest LA. ..Mosier/Hart.. 01/24/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX... LAT...LON 28929736 29229714 29649635 30309499 30459453 30529392 30519348 30389313 30069296 29839298 29799319 29769363 29669407 29489449 28879542 28489623 28149689 28099718 28229750 28519757 28929736