MD 0097 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHERN LA
Mesoscale Discussion 0097
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0343 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2023
Areas affected...Southern LA
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 242143Z - 242345Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Tornado risk will increase this evening across southern LA
and a Tornado Watch will likely be needed in the next hour or two.
DISCUSSION...A strong shortwave trough continue to move across the
southern Plains, with robust low-level wind fields and strong
low-level mass response ahead of this wave across southeast TX into
southern LA. This system has contributed to tornado-producing,
line-embedded supercells across the middle/upper TX coast this
afternoon. The line continues to push eastward into far west-central
LA and far southeast TX/Golden Triangle.
Expectation is for this line to continue eastward, potentially
bringing a tornado threat into more of southern LA. Additionally,
persistent and strong warm-air advection may contribute to more
cellular development ahead of the main line. These leading storms
may be able to deepen/maturing as the low-level air mass improves
during the next few hours. All of these factors will contribute to
an additional tornado risk this evening across southern LA and a
Tornado Watch will likely be needed.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 29899329 30399314 30599225 30589151 30549097 30339074
30049069 29659085 29519135 29549194 29619268 29899329