SPC Jul 26, 2015 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Outlook Image

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1244 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
MONTANA/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST.

...SYNOPSIS...
A SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES MONDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD ALONG THE EAST
COAST. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.

...CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS INTO UPPER MIDWEST...
A FEW ELEVATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS MAY BE IN PROGRESS EARLY MONDAY
ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA/NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AS A LEAD SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF THE PRIMARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH EARLY DAY STORMS. 

AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER EASTERN MONTANA DURING THE DAY...A
MOIST LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW /SURFACE DEW POINTS 60-65/ WILL
DEVELOP NORTH OF THE LOW AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING NORTHEAST
FROM THE LOW INTO NORTH-CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...MODERATE/STRONG SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY
SHOULD EXIST BY AFTERNOON. STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW ABOVE
LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES WILL RESULT IN A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT
/0-6 KM SHEAR 45-55 KTS/. AS HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING FOR ASCENT
OVERSPREAD THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA/NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
WITH SUPERCELLS LIKELY AND A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
DESPITE MARGINAL LCL HEIGHTS...SOME TORNADO RISK MAY EXIST WHERE
BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONTRIBUTES TO ENHANCED 0-3 KM STORM-RELATIVE
HELICITY. 

FARTHER SOUTH...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT ALONG A NORTH-SOUTH SURFACE
TROUGH AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTHWESTERN KANSAS...HOWEVER THE PRESENCE OF
AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER/POTENTIAL CAPPING CONCERNS CAST SOME DOUBT
ON COVERAGE. INTENSE HEATING WILL RESULT IN MODERATE/STRONG
INSTABILITY AND WITH 30-40 KTS OF SHEAR...STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
WOULD CARRY SOME RISK OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS. THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE MAY INCREASE SOMEWHAT MONDAY EVENING AS A NOCTURNALLY
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET RESULTS IN STRONG WARM ADVECTION ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS...AND AN IMPULSE WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/WESTERN MINNESOTA. DAMAGING WINDS
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...WITH SOME SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE.

..BUNTING.. 07/26/2015

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SPC MD 1538

MD 1538 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 451… FOR KS…NRN MO

MD 1538 Image


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1538
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0932 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...KS...NRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 451...

VALID 260232Z - 260400Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 451
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT MAY LINGER FOR ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS ON WESTERN
AND NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF WW 451...BUT A GENERAL DOWNWARD TREND IS
EXPECTED WITH TIME AND NO ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE IS ANTICIPATED
DOWNSTREAM.

DISCUSSION...THE STRONGEST CONVECTION ACROSS WW 451 AS OF 0230Z IS
IN THE FAR WRN PART ACROSS W-CNTRL KS AND THE FAR NERN PORTION
ACROSS NWRN MO. ACROSS FAR NERN KS/NWRN MO...TWO RELATIVELY
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS HAVE EVOLVED OUT OF EARLIER ELEVATED
CONVECTION. THESE CLUSTERS WILL AFFECT THE FAR NERN PORTION OF WW
451 AND AREAS DOWNSTREAM INTO NRN MO. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY BEING
AIDED BY ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS IA
AND MAY PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS IT MOVES ESEWD. IN THE
SHORT TERM...THIS ACTIVITY WILL POSE A THREAT OF LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND...BUT DECREASING SFC-BASED BUOYANCY WITH TIME SHOULD TEMPER THE
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT AND NO DOWNSTREAM WW ISSUANCE IS ANTICIPATED
AT THIS TIME. 

TO THE WEST...STRONG STORMS ARE ONGOING TO THE NE OF DDC...WITH SOME
BACKBUILDING NOTED ALONG A TRAILING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT IS NEUTRAL AT BEST IN THIS REGION...SO THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
BECOME LESS ORGANIZED WITH TIME AS THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE. WHILE A LOCAL EXTENSION IN TIME IS
POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON SHORT-TERM TRENDS...NEW WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

..DEAN/HART.. 07/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...EAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

LAT...LON   37739938 37730030 37820055 38240072 38779988 39209842
            39439697 39939524 40189320 40079264 39619171 39059183
            38829319 38349476 38099635 37829812 37739938 

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SPC Jul 26, 2015 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0743 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

VALID 260100Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NRN AND CNTRL
PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SWRN KS INTO NWRN MO...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS TO
NWRN OH...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT.

...NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS...

UPPER RIDGE HAS FLATTENED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS THIS
EVENING...THOUGH DECIDEDLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW REGIME PERSISTS FROM
THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE MID MS VALLEY.  ONE PLUME OF HIGHER PW
EXTENDS ALONG THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE AND STRONG STORMS
HAVE EVOLVED FROM NERN NM...ACROSS CNTRL KS INTO NWRN MO.  SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY MAY LINGER INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS AIDED IN PART
BY INCREASING NOCTURNAL LLJ THAT WILL FEED UPDRAFTS ACROSS PARTS OF
SWRN KS.

FARTHER NORTH...LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS HAS EVOLVED OVER NERN SD AND
NEW UPDRAFTS ARE FORMING ALONG LEADING EDGE OF THIS CLUSTER AS IT
PROPAGATES SEWD TOWARD THE MID MO VALLEY REGION.  NW-SE CORRIDOR OF
WARM ADVECTION SHOULD INTENSIFY AND FOCUS FROM NEAR THE ONGOING
ACTIVITY INTO WRN IA LATER TONIGHT AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO AID SEWD
MOVEMENT AFTER DARK.  LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

..DARROW.. 07/26/2015

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SPC MD 1537

MD 1537 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 451… FOR CNTRL/ERN KS…W-CNTRL MO

MD 1537 Image


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1537
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0646 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN KS...W-CNTRL MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 451...

VALID 252346Z - 260115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 451
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW 451...WITH THE
GREATEST NEAR-TERM THREAT ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE WATCH AREA.

DISCUSSION...EARLIER STORMS THAT PRODUCED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
ACROSS NERN KS HAVE LARGELY DISSIPATED...WITH ONLY DISORGANIZED
ELEVATED CONVECTION ONGOING AS OF 2330Z ACROSS NRN KS.
HOWEVER...STRONG STORMS ARE NOW MOVING INTO THE WRN PART OF WW
451...WITH THIS ACTIVITY BEING FOCUSED ALONG A ZONE OF ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND A WEAK
SFC TROUGH. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 25-35 KTS
WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...RESULTING IN A THREAT FOR DAMAGING
OUTFLOW WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MOVING INTO CNTRL KS OVER
THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. A BRIEF TORNADO ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH
ANY CELL THAT FAVORABLY INTERACTS WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. 

FURTHER EAST...THE NEAR-TERM SEVERE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS ERN
KS INTO WRN MO. ADDITIONAL SFC-BASED DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY IN ERN KS/WRN MO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE NEXT 1-2
HRS...BUT CURRENT RADAR/VIS IMAGERY TRENDS ARE NOT SUPPORTIVE OF
THIS SCENARIO. THE SEVERE THREAT IN THIS AREA MAY INCREASE AGAIN
THIS EVENING...ASSOCIATED WITH POTENTIAL UPSCALE GROWTH OF THE
ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS NRN KS AND/OR THE CURRENT CLUSTER ACROSS
W-CNTRL KS.

..DEAN.. 07/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

LAT...LON   37729837 37729901 37729923 37729933 37729937 37729955
            37839956 38709959 38979958 39069958 39139958 39659793
            39659790 39659737 39659523 39659520 39659512 39659512
            39459420 39139409 38569405 38479406 38459406 38049508
            37749769 37729770 37729777 37729787 37729826 37729837
            37729837 

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