SPC MD 658

MD 0658 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 158… FOR NORTHEAST COLORADO…SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA…NORTHWEST KANSAS

MD 0658 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0658
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1158 PM CDT Wed Jun 06 2018

Areas affected...Northeast Colorado...southwest Nebraska...northwest
Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 158...

Valid 070458Z - 070700Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 158
continues.

SUMMARY...Convection appears to be weakening in general, but
isolated strong storm development persists and could continue into
the overnight hours with some lingering risk for severe hail and
wind.

DISCUSSION...The conglomerate convectively generated surface cold
pool has maintained a steady, but rather slow to modest,
eastward/southward advancement across southwestern
Nebraska/northwest Kansas/northeast Colorado the past few hours. 
The southwestern flank has spread out ahead of the primary lingering
thunderstorm activity, which is being maintained by lift above the
cold pool, on the nose of the modest southerly low-level jet.  Drier
lower/mid tropospheric air south of activity across Colorado and
northwest Kansas, coupled with warmer and more strongly capping
elevated mixed layer air may continue to inhibit development south
of the western Kansas/Nebraska border vicinity through 06-07Z. 
Thereafter, as the central High Plains low-level jet veers around to
the southwest, it is possible that weaker inhibition and better
low-level moisture near/east of the Hill City vicinity could allow
for a sharper southward propagation of convection into north central
Kansas.

..Kerr.. 06/07/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...BOU...

LAT...LON   41299964 40859826 39869768 39119791 38870000 39060215
            39380300 39830367 40710324 40610175 41170092 41299964 

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SPC MD 657

MD 0657 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 157… FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN NE…WESTERN/CENTRAL IA…NORTHEAST KS…NORTHWEST MO

MD 0657 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0657
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0845 PM CDT Wed Jun 06 2018

Areas affected...Central/Eastern NE...Western/Central IA...Northeast
KS...Northwest MO

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 157...

Valid 070145Z - 070315Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 157
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe wind and hail threat continues across WW 157.
Ongoing storms should tend to weaken with time, but additional
storms may move in from the west later this evening.

DISCUSSION...At 0145Z, cell mergers have resulted in two separate
clusters of convection across WW 157, one across east-central NE and
the other arcing from south-central into west-central IA. While
low/midlevel flow and effective shear is relatively weak across the
region, steep lapse rates and large buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1500-3000
J/kg) are supporting a threat of large hail with the remaining
discrete cells across eastern NE/western IA. Meanwhile, expanding
cold pools are still supporting a severe wind risk, though there has
been a tendency for outflows to spread well ahead of the active
convection, resulting in a gradual decrease in storm organization
with time. 

In the short term, a threat of severe wind and hail will continue to
spread southward from ongoing convection. The easternmost convection
will begin spreading out of WW 157 into northern MO with a localized
severe wind risk, though this threat should become increasingly
marginal with time. A gradual decreasing trend should continue into
mid/late-evening with ongoing convection, though other storms may
eventually move into the region later tonight from the west.

..Dean.. 06/07/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON   40059822 40349844 40699875 40909895 41129917 41749920
            41779771 41909649 42209562 41839476 41309370 40919273
            40339246 40049390 39839542 39679651 39719814 40059822 

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SPC MD 655

MD 0655 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 157… FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN NE…WESTERN/CENTRAL IA…FAR NORTHEAST KS/NORTHWEST MO

MD 0655 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0655
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0620 PM CDT Wed Jun 06 2018

Areas affected...Central/Eastern NE...Western/Central IA...Far
Northeast KS/Northwest MO

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 157...

Valid 062320Z - 070045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 157
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for large hail and damaging wind continues
across WW 157. Some upscale growth is possible with time into this
evening, with the threat expected to spread southward through the
watch.

DISCUSSION...At 2315Z, several severe thunderstorms are ongoing
along a surface boundary from eastern NE into central IA. The
environment across this region is characterized by strong
instability (MLCAPE of 2500-4000 J/kg) and weekly veering wind
profiles. Effective shear of 20-30 kt is marginal at best for
organized storm structures, though the westward propagating cell
north of Omaha has exhibited some supercell characteristics. In the
short term, the more discrete cells across eastern NE will pose a
threat of large hail (potentially greater than 2 inches in diameter
with any supercell structures) and locally damaging wind. Further
east, consolidation of outflows across western/central IA has
resulted in a southward acceleration of ongoing convection. The
storm mode is becoming less favorable for large hail in this area,
but more widespread damaging wind potential is possible as expanding
cold pools advance into a warm and moist airmass. A 62 kt gust was
noted in Ames, IA around 2230Z. 

With time this evening, storms may consolidate over eastern NE and
begin propagating southward, spreading a threat of large hail and
damaging wind into southeast NE by mid-evening, while the Iowa
convection spreads a threat of wind and isolated severe hail into
southwest/south-central IA. There is some potential for the severe
threat to spread slightly eastward out of the watch in IA, and also
propagate slightly westward out of the watch in NE, though the
primary threat is expected to remain confined within WW 157 for at
least the next 1-2 hours.

..Dean.. 06/06/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON   42019884 42419484 42599263 42319189 41109227 40399467
            39979558 39849695 39929782 40099837 40989883 42019884 

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Special Weather Statement issued June 02 at 3:53AM CDT by NWS

…SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FRANKLIN…OSAGE… POTTAWATOMIE…JACKSON…NORTHERN LYON…JEFFERSON…DICKINSON… GEARY…RILEY…MORRIS…SHAWNEE…WABAUNSEE…OTTAWA…DOUGLAS AND SOUTHERN CLAY COUNTIES UNTIL 445 AM CDT… At 352 AM CDT, emergency management reported strong thunderstorms along a line extending from near Winchester to 6 miles northeast of

Special Weather Statement issued June 02 at 2:56AM CDT by NWS

…SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR POTTAWATOMIE…JACKSON…CLOUD… SOUTHERN MARSHALL…JEFFERSON…NORTHERN DICKINSON…GEARY…RILEY… SHAWNEE…WABAUNSEE…OTTAWA…SOUTHERN NEMAHA…SOUTHERN REPUBLIC… SOUTHERN WASHINGTON…BROWN AND CLAY COUNTIES UNTIL 400 AM CDT… At 255 AM CDT, trained weather spotters reported strong thunderstorms along a line extending from near Highland to near Havensville to

SPC Center Public Severe Weather Outlook (PWO)

Public Severe Weather Outlook

PWO Image

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1208 PM CDT FRI JUN 01 2018

...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the central Plains
this afternoon and tonight...

* LOCATIONS...
  Central and eastern Nebraska

* HAZARDS...
  Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force
  A few tornadoes
  Widespread large hail, some baseball size

* SUMMARY...
  Large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are likely from
  the northern and central Plains into the middle Missouri Valley
  this afternoon into tonight. Severe winds and some hail are also
  expected across parts of the Southeast, with isolated strong to
  severe storms across the southern High Plains.

Preparedness actions...

Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility
of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio,
weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch
means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms
over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is
issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an 
interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.

&&

..Guyer.. 06/01/2018

$$

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Special Weather Statement issued May 29 at 9:30PM CDT by NWS

…SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN GEARY…SOUTHEASTERN RILEY…CENTRAL MORRIS…SOUTHWESTERN WABAUNSEE AND NORTHERN LYON COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 PM CDT… At 930 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from 4 miles north of White City to 4 miles southeast of Council Grove. Movement was east at 35 mph.

SPC MD 572

MD 0572 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 132… FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA

MD 0572 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0572
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0903 PM CDT Tue May 29 2018

Areas affected...Portions of central/northeast Kansas and far
southeast Nebraska

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 132...

Valid 300203Z - 300300Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 132
continues.

SUMMARY...While some potential for a few stronger/damaging gusts
lingers, the severe threat is expected to diminish sufficiently to
allow Severe Thunderstorm Watch 132 to expire at 10pm CDT.

DISCUSSION...Diurnal cooling and previous convective overturning are
fostering a gradual downward trend in thunderstorm intensity across
Watch 132 this evening. Given nocturnal cooling and a continued
increase in surface-based inhibition, this trend is likely to
persist into the late evening hours. Therefore, the watch should be
allowed to expire at 10pm CDT. Still, following watch expiration,
steep lapse rates just above the surface (owing to a residual
boundary layer) may yield isolated damaging gusts in pockets of
stronger convection.

..Picca.. 05/30/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

LAT...LON   37169821 37889811 38429780 40139733 40749626 40519565
            39919533 38929584 38059635 37529674 37109729 37129806
            37169821 

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