The National Weather Service in Topeka has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for… Central Geary County in east central Kansas… Riley County in northeastern Kansas… Southwestern Pottawatomie County in northeastern Kansas… * Until 245 PM CDT.
Mesoscale Discussion 1083 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018 Areas affected...Portions of northern/eastern Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 191637Z - 191830Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Developing thunderstorms over northern Kansas may gradually spread east/southeastward through this afternoon. Some of these storms will be capable of damaging winds and large hail. A watch could be needed within the next 1-2 hours. DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms has formed within a field of ACCAS over north-central Kansas late this morning. This convective development suggests that subtle forcing for ascent within northwesterly flow is beginning to advance across northern Kansas. As it does so, isolated to scattered convective initiation is possible farther east along a surface theta-e ridge/confluence axis extending towards the Missouri Valley. Adjusting the 12Z TOP sounding for current conditions suggests strong buoyancy (e.g., MLCAPE upwards of 3000 J/kg) is already present. In turn, robust updraft accelerations and strong thunderstorm cores will remain possible. Relatively straight hodographs (somewhat parallel to the corridor of initiation as well) suggest clusters of splitting cells will be the preferred mode. The steep lapse rate environment and hot boundary layer will be favorable for strong cold pool generation, and this may encourage a few bowing segments that advance east/southeast within the northwesterly flow environment. As such, damaging winds will be the primary threat, although embedded supercell structures will yield the potential for large hail as well. Due to the subtle nature of large-scale ascent, there is some uncertainty in the timing/coverage of downstream convection. However, the severe threat appears to be increasing sufficiently such that a watch may be needed within the next 1-2 hours. ..Picca/Guyer.. 07/19/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... LAT...LON 39359975 39739983 39939959 39939716 39869656 39689541 39429493 38889461 38219471 37919480 37449564 37509629 38079729 38539880 39359975
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2LmW7op
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 284 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN ANDERSON ATCHISON BARTON BOURBON CHASE
…SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL RILEY… NORTHWESTERN POTTAWATOMIE…SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON AND SOUTHWESTERN MARSHALL COUNTIES UNTIL 515 AM CDT… At 448 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near Waterville, moving south at 35 mph. Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
Mesoscale Discussion 1080 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018 Areas affected...East/Southeast NE...Far Northeast KS...Far Southwest IA...Far Northwest MO Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 190547Z - 190745Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Strong to severe wind gusts and hail are expected to remain a threat during the next several hours as the cluster of storms continues southeastward. WW likely. DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery continues to show a small but well-defined convective system moving southeastward across eastern NE at about 35 to 40 kt. Nocturnal stabilization has made the downstream airmass less favorable for surface-based convection (i.e. SBCIN is less than -50 J/kg based on recent mesoanalysis). Even so, the very moist nature of the airmass, evidenced by dewpoints in the mid 70s and 100mb mean mixing ratios around 16 g per kg, and at least moderately steep mid-level lapse rates result in enough instability to maintain elevated convection. Moisture gradient between the drier conditions of the middle MS Valley and more moist conditions across the central Plains will provide a favored track for the system. As such, the general expectation is for the system to continue southeastward for the next several hours, eventually reaching far northeast KS and far northwest MO. Strong to severe wind gusts and isolated hail appear probable as this system continues southeastward and a watch will be needed to cover this persisting threat. ..Mosier/Edwards.. 07/19/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID... LAT...LON 40039804 41069843 41729809 42099709 41289555 40019502 39489671 40039804
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2sLJHgL
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 282 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 AM CDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATCHISON BROWN DONIPHAN JACKSON MARSHALL NEMAHA
Mesoscale Discussion 1079 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0921 PM CDT Wed Jul 18 2018 Areas affected...Much of eastern Nebraska Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 281... Valid 190221Z - 190415Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 281 continues. SUMMARY...A few storms capable of hail and locally strong wind gusts remain possible across eastern Nebraska. Isolated storms may eventually affect northern Kansas, but a watch may not be needed. DISCUSSION...Storms across NE has remained largely cellular this evening owing to lengthening hodographs and sufficient low-level SRH. 00Z soundings from the area indicate a marginally unstable environment with relatively poor lapse rates aloft, yet ample low-level moisture. Some increase in the southerly low-level jet this evening may support a continued severe threat over far southern NE and into northern KS, as capping remains minimal. However, it is unclear whether a new watch will need to be issued at this time, especially if storms remain isolated. ..Jewell.. 07/19/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF... LAT...LON 39189903 41179936 41749933 42419898 42719855 42839805 42819750 42739704 42449659 41919616 41139585 40629573 39919595 39489620 39189672 39109739 38999810 39019849 39189903
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2mrspk4
…HEAT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING… * TEMPERATURE…Afternoon temperatures will be in the middle 90s to around 100 degrees. Combined with the humidity, it will feel more like 100 to 105 degrees. Additionally there may not be much relief overnight as lows only fall into the middle 70s. * IMPACTS…Exposure to the heat without a way to cool down will
…SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN RILEY…NORTHWESTERN POTTAWATOMIE AND SOUTHWESTERN MARSHALL COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM CDT… At 302 PM CDT, trained weather spotters reported a strong thunderstorm over Randolph, moving northeast at 25 mph. Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.
…HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY… * TEMPERATURE…Afternoon temperatures will be in the middle 90s to around 100 degrees. Combined with the humidity, it will feel more like 100 to 107 degrees. Additionally there may not be much relief overnight as lows only fall into the middle 70s.