SPC MD 299

MD 0299 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA

MD 0299 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0299
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0549 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2019

Areas affected...North-central Kansas into southeast Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 102249Z - 110045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A few severe storms capable of mainly damaging hail may
develop after 00Z.

DISCUSSION...A surface low continues to deepen across central KS,
and will track northeastward into southeast NE this evening. The
synoptic setup overall is quite favorable for severe storms with
steep lapse rates aloft, strong wind profiles, and lift. However,
moisture is a major concern. GPS PW sensors indicate values
approaching 0.60" near Wichita, but a band of relatively greater PW
does exist near the stationary/developing warm front from near
Kansas City into southeast NE.

Recent visible imagery and radar shows skeletal convection forming
near Russell KS as of 23Z, ahead of the low. The zone from here
northeastward appears to have the greatest chance of severe storms
capable of large hail. Supercells are possible, either elevated, or,
surface based right along the front, with an enhanced risk of
damaging hail. While low-level moisture is a concern, a conditional
tornado risk still exists given favorable storm mode, steep lapse
rates, lift along the boundary, and increasing low-level SRH.

..Jewell/Guyer.. 04/10/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

LAT...LON   39549925 40579892 41179839 41459749 41549664 41429611
            41179581 40779564 40369561 40119570 39989596 39889631
            39789661 39589706 39269752 38859810 38749852 38799876
            39079914 39549925 

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SPC MD 273

MD 0273 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO NORTH-CENTRAL KS

MD 0273 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0273
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0143 AM CDT Sun Apr 07 2019

Areas affected...far south-central Nebraska into north-central KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 070643Z - 070745Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated hail near 1 inch in diameter will be possible the
next 1-2 hours as storms track southeast from south-central Nebraska
into north-central KS.

DISCUSSION...Elevated thunderstorms may continue to pose a
marginally severe hail threat the next 1-2 hours as they track
southeast from far south-central NE into north-central KS. These
storms were occurring in an area of weak forcing associated with the
northern stream shortwave trough moving across the central Plains
and in the vicinity of a surface trough. Steep midlevel lapse rates
around 7-8 C/km per 00z regional RAOBs and weak elevated instability
will continue to support some stronger updrafts over the next couple
of hours. As the storms track further southeast, they may encounter
some subsidence on the back side of a MCV currently over far
southeast NE/northwest MO/southwest IA. The impact of this
subsidence is evident in surface dewpoints falling into the mid 40s
across central KS the last couple of hours. Given the localized
nature of the threat, and that storms are expected to weaken in the
next couple of hours, a watch is not expected.

..Leitman/Thompson.. 04/07/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...

LAT...LON   40429894 40309844 39959763 39549742 39249742 39099766
            39139833 39419882 39759907 40179923 40429894 

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SPC MD 267

MD 0267 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN KS

MD 0267 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0267
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0330 PM CDT Sat Apr 06 2019

Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 062030Z - 062300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Marginally severe hail may occur this afternoon into the
early evening. Watch issuance is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed this afternoon ahead of a
shortwave trough across parts of central KS. Cloud cover has
generally been more prevalent across this area compared to locations
farther south, and instability should generally remain weak through
the evening. Although low to mid-level winds are more southerly per
KICT and KTOP VWPs, some speed shear is present in RAP forecast
soundings across parts of central/eastern KS. Related 30-35 kt of
effective bulk shear may be enough to support occasional updraft
organization, and marginally severe hail could occur as mid-level
lapse rates modestly steepen with the approach of the shortwave
trough. The overall severe threat will likely remain too isolated
and marginal to warrant watch issuance.

..Gleason/Hart.. 04/06/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   37029806 37409834 38429838 39239783 39369645 39019546
            38039502 37479518 37069561 37029806 

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SPC MD 261

MD 0261 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR TX SOUTH PLAINS VICINITY

MD 0261 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0261
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0141 AM CDT Sat Apr 06 2019

Areas affected...TX South Plains vicinity

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 060641Z - 060815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms may briefly intensify at times through early
morning, possibly producing marginally severe hail and strong wind
gusts. A watch is not anticipated at this time.

DISCUSSION...Isolated strong to briefly severe stroms will continue
the next several hours across the TX South Plains/western north TX
vicinity. Current cells/bowing segments affecting Kent, Stonewall
and King counties in TX have shown periodic intensification over the
last hour or so. Brief pulses in MRMS MESH data suggesting hail size
up to around 1-1.5 inches possible, though most recent trends have
decreased. Furthermore, velocity data from KLBB has shown moderate
midlevel rotation at times, further supporting hail potential, and
possibly a strong to severe gust where  boundary layer inhibition
may be weak and/or downdrafts briefly intense. 

This band of strong convection was occurring ahead of a shortwave
impulse ejecting across southwest TX currently and on the nose of
stronger southeasterly return flow. Surface dewpoints are maximized
in this location, though still in the mid 50s to near 60F. Storms
have been ongoing for several hours and IR satellite indicates a
maturing MCS over northwest TX with a large area of cold cloud tops
over the eastern portions of the South Plains. Expect that hail
concerns should continue to be marginal heading into the early
morning hours as this system tracks east/northeast toward southwest
OK and north TX. For this reason, a watch is not expected though
brief periods of intensification are possible.

Additional isolated convection is developing further to the
west/southwest in the vicinity of the surface dryline near the
higher terrain of southwest TX. This convection is expected to
remain isolated, though could produce some hail as midlevel lapse
rates remain intact across this area.

..Leitman/Thompson.. 04/06/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   33739914 34219923 34559945 34689986 34600035 34280080
            33900096 33120181 32510284 32020294 31770291 30690287
            30470243 30520196 31280107 33739914 

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Special Weather Statement issued March 30 at 6:58AM CDT by NWS

…Accumulating snow in north-central and northeast Kansas… Over an inch of snow has fallen at some locations in north-central and northeast Kansas early this morning with snow continuing to fall in many locations. A number of roads have become snow- covered and could potentially be slick in spots. Road conditions should improve by mid-morning. Please exercise caution if

SPC MD 248

MD 0248 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF OK INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN KS…SOUTHWESTERN MO…AND NORTHWESTERN AR

MD 0248 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0248
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 PM CDT Fri Mar 29 2019

Areas affected...Parts of OK into far southeastern KS...southwestern
MO...and northwestern AR

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 300430Z - 300700Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated large hail may occur overnight as thunderstorms
increase in coverage and intensity. While not immediately likely,
severe thunderstorm watch issuance may be needed by 1-2 AM CDT.

DISCUSSION...04Z surface analysis shows a 1008 mb low centered along
the KS/MO border near Pittsburg, KS. A cold front extends
southwestward from this low across central/western OK into the TX
Panhandle, while a warm front is located over parts of southwestern
MO. A shortwave trough over the central High Plains will shift
eastward overnight. At least scattered thunderstorms appear likely
to develop by 06-07Z (1-2 AM CDT) as large-scale ascent associated
with the shortwave trough overspreads much of OK and vicinity.

Initial convective development appears to be underway across the
eastern TX Panhandle and northwestern OK at 0420Z with cooling of
cloud tops noted on infrared satellite imagery. These thunderstorms
will likely remain elevated above a stable near-surface layer as
they move eastward across OK and eventually southwestern
MO/northwestern AR overnight. Steep mid-level lapse rates of 7.5 to
8.5 C/km present on 00Z area soundings are supporting MUCAPE of
1000-2000 J/kg across much of OK. Around 40-50 kt of effective bulk
shear in the cloud-bearing layer should initially support supercells
with an isolated large hail threat.

Convective mode becomes less clear with eastward extent across OK,
as storms may have a tendency to organize into one or more line
segments as they interact with the cold front. Gusty winds may also
occur, but downdrafts will probably struggle to reach the surface
given the strong low-level inversion. Convective trends will be
monitored over the next several hours for possible watch issuance.

..Gleason/Guyer.. 03/30/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   34629951 34859985 35279994 36949645 37189543 37469415
            37279334 36479335 36079357 35459445 35099541 34889619
            34699701 34559808 34509881 34629951 

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SPC MD 246

MD 0246 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA…SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS…SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI…AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS

MD 0246 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0246
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0839 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2019

Areas affected...Central/northeastern Oklahoma...southeastern
Kansas...southwestern Missouri...and far northwest Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 291339Z - 291515Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Occasional instances of 1+ inch hailstones are possible
with stronger thunderstorms over the next couple of hours.  A WW
issuance is not anticipated at this time.

DISCUSSION...Elevated convection persists along an axis from near
CQB to near TUL and BVO - and is more widespread than operational
models depict.  Though forcing for ascent aloft is negligible,
mid-level instability (8.5-9 deg C/km) noted on 12Z soundings and
subtle speed convergence at the base of this unstable layer (800-850
mb) is likely forcing ongoing convection along the eastern edge of
the strongest lapse rates.  Though effective shear is marginal, the
magnitude of lapse rates will continue to support a hail risk with
the strongest storms, with 1" or greater hail stones possible for
the next couple of hours.

Over time, flow at 800-850mb is expected to weaken and back to a
more south-southwesterly direction in response to cyclogenesis over
central Kansas.  This will likely lead to a weakening of ongoing
convection as convergence near the base of the lapse rate plume
weakens.  Thus, the isolated nature of the severe threat with
ongoing convection and expected weakening of this activity precludes
any need for a WW issuance.

..Cook.. 03/29/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   37829623 38029570 38179474 38069404 37609369 36629375
            35849424 35359490 35119592 35029678 35069726 35279751
            35729736 36319710 36859705 37249691 37449670 37829623 

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