SPC MD 1090

MD 1090 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 326… FOR EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KS

MD 1090 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1090
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1150 PM CDT Thu Jul 02 2020

Areas affected...East central and northeast KS

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 326...

Valid 030450Z - 030615Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 326
continues.

SUMMARY...An MCS will continue to move east-southeastward toward
northeast and east central KS, with the threat for isolated damaging
winds.  A local extension of 1-2 tiers of counties may need to be
considered to the east and southeast.

DISCUSSION...An MCS with a history of damaging winds and several
measured severe gusts continues to move east-southeastward along the
axis of greatest buoyancy in KS.  Modest storm inflow from
south-southeast will help maintain the convection for another couple
of hours, and the watch may need to be expanded by 1-2 tiers of
counties into northeast and east central KS to reflect the last of
the damaging-wind threat.  However, the convection will eventually
weaken as convective inhibition increases and outflow gradually
spreads away from the leading convective line in the weak shear
environment, so a new downstream watch appears unlikely.

..Thompson.. 07/03/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   38189604 37759657 37739762 37919822 38429754 39019727
            39539733 39889747 39939698 39789659 39109602 38189604 

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SPC MD 1089

MD 1089 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR CENTRAL KANSAS

MD 1089 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1089
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0915 PM CDT Thu Jul 02 2020

Areas affected...Central Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 030215Z - 030315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...An MCS propagating into central KS should continue to
support severe wind gusts over the next 1-2 hours. A watch will be
issued soon to address this threat.

DISCUSSION...An MCS moving across northern KS continues to produce
severe winds gusts, including along its southern flank with 60-70
mph winds recently reported. These wind reports support recent radar
trends which show the southern portion of the line beginning to
accelerate to the east/southeast. New convection developing ahead of
this southeastward surge suggests that conditions remain favorable
for continued propagation. This is supported by recent RAP
mesoanalysis which shows Low-level lapse rates of 7-8 C/km and
2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE in this region, suggesting that the severe
wind threat should continue for the next one to two hours. As such,
a watch is likely to cover this wind threat.

..Moore/Thompson.. 07/03/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   39409991 39639912 39479752 38959706 38349688 38069759
            38029820 38389937 38709979 39409991 

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SPC MD 1086

MD 1086 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS

MD 1086 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1086
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0704 PM CDT Thu Jul 02 2020

Areas affected...South-central Nebraska and north-central Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 030004Z - 030200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...An eastward propagating MCS should continue into portions
of south-central Nebraska and north-central Kansas over the next 1-3
hours and will pose a risk for severe wind.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar trends from northwest KS and southwest NE
continue to show upscale growth as cold pool amalgamation and cell
mergers from the south continue to organize into an eastward moving
MCS. This line of storms is expected to continue to propagate into
south-central NE and north-central KS over the next 1-3 hours.
Although it will become increasingly displaced from the more
favorable deep layer shear to the west, steep 7.5-8 C/km low-level
lapse rates ahead of the line, coupled with upwards of 4000 J/kg
MLCAPE, will continue to favor strong outflow winds and the
potential for severe wind gusts. A watch is likely to cover this
threat prior to a gradual decay later this evening.

..Moore/Thompson.. 07/03/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   39139951 40150028 41340034 41489988 41499876 41219809
            40749771 40049771 39249812 39129882 39139951 

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SPC MD 1069

MD 1069 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI…NORTHEAST ARKANSAS

MD 1069 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1069
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0955 AM CDT Wed Jul 01 2020

Areas affected...Southeast Missouri...northeast Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 011455Z - 011630Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Limited potential for damaging wind gusts exists for areas
downstream of ongoing south-central MO convection. Greatest risk
appears to be in northeast AR if convection is maintained. No WW is
currently expected. Trends will be monitored, however.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms moving southeastward into
south-central Missouri may pose some risk for isolated
strong/damaging wind gusts for another few hours. Overall,
convective trends have been down with IR satellite showing
contraction of the coldest cloud tops. With the 12Z LZK showing near
22 C at 850 mb and outflow from an overnight MCS to the east, the
potential for intensification appears limited. Should convection
maintain strength, the area of greatest risk for damaging wind gusts
will likely exist in northeast Arkansas where the strongest heating
will occur. Given the uncertainty, no WW is currently anticipated.
Trends will continue to be monitored this afternoon.

..Wendt/Hart.. 07/01/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON   37809339 38259256 37919086 36578997 35479000 35219073
            35459176 36709303 37359348 37809339 

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SPC MD 1067

MD 1067 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 321… FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEASTERN KS AND NORTHWESTERN MO

MD 1067 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1067
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 AM CDT Wed Jul 01 2020

Areas affected...Portions of far northeastern KS and northwestern MO

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 321...

Valid 010850Z - 011015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 321
continues.

SUMMARY...A strong to locally damaging wind threat continues with a
line of storms moving southeastward. Downstream watch issuance is
not expected at this time.

DISCUSSION...Recent observed wind gusts across southeastern NE from
a small, bowing line of storms have generally been in the 30-35 kt
range. There may still be potential for locally strong to perhaps
damaging winds in the short term along the apex of the line
currently along the KS/MO border, where inbound velocities from TMCI
show some enhancement to 45-55 kt around 1200 ft AGL. Regardless,
the modest, 25-35 kt southwesterly low-level jet being estimated by
recent VWPs from KTWX should continue to slowly weaken over the next
few hours. This should result in eventual weakening of the line as
it moves southeastward. Given this expectation, downstream watch
issuance to the southeast of ongoing Severe Thunderstorm Watch 321
is not expected at this time.

..Gleason.. 07/01/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   39909606 39989522 40569477 40559446 39689432 39209464
            39229527 39409573 39669604 39909606 

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SPC MD 1066

MD 1066 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 321… FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NE…SOUTHWESTERN IA…NORTHEASTERN KS…AND NORTHWESTERN MO

MD 1066 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1066
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0148 AM CDT Wed Jul 01 2020

Areas affected...Portions of southeastern NE...southwestern
IA...northeastern KS...and northwestern MO

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 321...

Valid 010648Z - 010815Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 321
continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated threat for mainly damaging winds continues
in/near Severe Thunderstorm Watch 321.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery shows a well developed MCS arcing
along/near the MO River. The strongest portion of this line is along
the southern flank, where modest (30-35 kt) moisture influx is
occurring in tandem with a low-level jet. A reservoir of very strong
to extreme MUCAPE (4000-5000+ J/kg) is present to the
south-southeast of the southern flank. Current expectations are for
the MCS to move southeastward along an instability gradient into
northeastern KS and northwestern MO over the next couple of hours.
Given the linear mode, isolated damaging wind gusts from
thunderstorm outflow will likely remain the primary threat. The
greatest wind threat may focus where updrafts and corresponding
reflectivity can remain in close proximity to the outflow, which has
surged ahead of the line in most areas.

..Gleason.. 07/01/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   40899727 40849638 40939599 41349584 41869575 41859513
            40549455 39539454 39459557 40019728 40899727 

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SPC MD 1064

MD 1064 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 320… FOR CENTRAL PLAINS

MD 1064 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1064
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0926 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

Areas affected...Central Plains

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 320...

Valid 010226Z - 010430Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 320
continues.

SUMMARY...Convection should increase across much of ww320 over the
next few hours. Severe threat continues.

DISCUSSION...Negative-tilt short-wave trough is ejecting northeast
at roughly 25kt. Leading edge of stronger forcing should overtake
the frontal zone in the next few hours and this will likely lead to
an increase in thunderstorms along/just behind the cold front as
700mb temperatures (capping) cool. Current thunderstorms northwest
of GRI are slowly intensifying, and severe hail is likely observed
in several updrafts. Overall convective trends should be up over the
next few hours.

..Darrow.. 07/01/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...TOP...ABR...GID...LBF...GLD...

LAT...LON   39999997 44569888 44559624 39989752 39999997 

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SPC MD 1033

MD 1033 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 311… FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN KS AND SOUTHERN NE

MD 1033 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1033
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2020

Areas affected...Portions of northern KS and southern NE

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 311...

Valid 280714Z - 280815Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 311
continues.

SUMMARY...Mainly a strong to locally severe wind gust threat
persists early this morning. Downstream watch issuance into
northeastern Kansas and southeastern Nebraska will probably not be
needed.

DISCUSSION...Strong outbound velocities have recently been noted
from the KUEX radar with a small but well organized bowing line of
storms across north-central KS and south-central NE. The
semi-discrete storms in a warm advection regime that had earlier
been ahead of the line have generally been absorbed within the past
hour. With a linear mode now prevalent, strong to locally severe
wind gusts should be the main threat through the early morning
hours. This wind threat may be somewhat greater along/near the NE/KS
border along an instability gradient. A 35-45 kt south-southwesterly
low-level jet over the central Plains should peak in the next couple
of hours before slowly weakening. Given that the overall wind threat
with ongoing storms is expected to remain relatively confined in
both areal extent and time, current thoughts are that a downstream
watch will probably not be needed.

..Gleason/Grams.. 06/28/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...

LAT...LON   39339802 39959794 40519799 40909830 41179869 41419865
            41309770 41099724 40659657 40159604 39519603 39149649
            39139786 39339802 

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SPC MD 1032

MD 1032 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 311… FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN KS AND SOUTHERN NE

MD 1032 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1032
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2020

Areas affected...Portions of northern KS and southern NE

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 311...

Valid 280552Z - 280715Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 311
continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated large hail and strong to severe wind threat
continues across north-central Kansas and southern Nebraska. The
need for a downstream watch into northeastern Kansas and
southeastern Nebraska remains unclear.

DISCUSSION...A small bowing line segment across north-central KS and
south-central NE has generally produced 50-55 mph measured wind
gusts over the past hour. Additional, somewhat more discrete storms
have formed in a low-level warm advection wing farther east across
southern NE. The line of storms moving eastward will continue to
pose mainly an isolated strong to severe wind gust threat for the
next couple of hours across northern KS, as instability remains
fairly large downstream of this activity. The semi-discrete storms
across southern NE should primarily have an isolated large hail
threat initially given steep mid-level lapse rates supporting a
large reservoir of MUCAPE in the 2000-3000 J/kg range. But,
clustering may eventually reduce this hail threat to some extent.
Regardless, a 30-40 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet feeding
into both storm regimes may support continued storm intensity for at
least the next few hours. The need for a new watch downstream of
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 311 remains unclear, but convective trends
will continue to be closely monitored.

..Gleason/Grams.. 06/28/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

LAT...LON   39089942 39149946 39719922 40229936 40449992 40759990
            41019802 40969615 40159582 39489580 39059712 39089942 

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SPC MD 1031

MD 1031 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 311… FOR NORTHERN KS…SOUTHERN NE

MD 1031 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1031
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1016 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2020

Areas affected...Northern KS...Southern NE

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 311...

Valid 280316Z - 280515Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 311
continues.

SUMMARY...Scattered strong/severe storms will spread across mainly
the northern portions of ww311.

DISCUSSION...High-plains convection has evolved into a line segment,
roughly 50mi in length, as it propagates across northwestern
portions of the watch. Earlier, winds gusted to 50kt at Burlington
CO with this squall line. Latest observational data suggest earlier
surface boundary that was lifting north across southwest KS has
advanced to near the I-70 corridor, and warm advection is now
focused north of this wind shift. In addition, LLJ is beginning to
strengthen into this zone which should aid longevity of convection
as it spreads east into the early morning hours.

..Darrow.. 06/28/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...PUB...

LAT...LON   38410235 40160190 40159774 38419828 38410235 

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