Day 4-8 Outlook
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0359 AM CDT MON APR 23 2012 VALID 261200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... 00Z ECMWF/GEFS GUIDANCE REMAIN IN AMPLE GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE CONTINUANCE OF A RELATIVELY AMPLIFIED PATTERN MUCH OF THE PERIOD. DEEP CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL GENERALLY BE TIED TO AN EASTWARD PROGRESSING UPPER TROUGH DAYS 4-6...WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST BY DAYS 5/6 FRIDAY/SATURDAY. IT IS LIKELY THAT AT LEAST SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS TO MO VALLEY/MIDWEST AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...AN INITIAL MODEST QUALITY/DEGREE OF MOISTURE RETURN...AND EVENTUAL POSSIBLE WEAKENING PHASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BY THE WEEKEND...PRECLUDE ANY 30 PERCENT SEVERE AREAS AT THIS TIME. NONETHELESS...CURRENT THINKING BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE IS THAT AT LEAST ISOLATED/POSSIBLE SLIGHT RISK-CALIBER SEVERE THREATS COULD EXIST DAY 4/THURSDAY INTO DAYS 5/6 FRIDAY/SATURDAY. FOR DAY 4/THURSDAY...THIS COULD BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/PERHAPS ROCKIES FRONT RANGE...INCLUDING A CORRIDOR ENCOMPASSING THE TX/OK PANHANDLES INTO EASTERN CO/FAR WESTERN KS. SUBSEQUENT SEVERE POTENTIAL COULD THEN DEVELOP EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/LOWER MO VALLEY INTO DAY 5/FRIDAY...WITH THE DEGREE/LIKELIHOOD OF DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE MORE UNCERTAIN WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT INTO OK/TX. BY DAY 6/SATURDAY...A SEVERE RISK MAY EXTEND INTO PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY/MIDDLE MS VALLEY AND PERHAPS ARKLATEX/MID-SOUTH IN VICINITY OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST ADVANCING COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH SPECIFIC PREDICTABILITY IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN BY THIS TIME FRAME.
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/
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