SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0230 AM CDT FRI APR 27 2012 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z ...SYNOPSIS... BLOCKING SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL PERSIST SUNDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE FROM ONTARIO SWD INTO THE MS AND OH VALLEYS FLANKED BY TROUGHS OVER THE ROCKIES AS WELL AS OVER QUEBEC IN ERN CANADA. EARLY SUNDAY A FRONT WILL LIKELY STRETCH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WSWWD INTO WRN TX. A DRYLINE WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR THE BIG BEND AREA NWD INTO WRN TX WHERE IT WILL INTERSECT THE FRONT. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SWD INTO THE OH VALLEY RESULTING IN SWD ADVANCE OF ERN PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY...WHILE WRN EXTENT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS AREA... NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING FROM PORTIONS OF OK INTO KS WITHIN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT NORTH OF QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY MAY POSE A MARGINAL THREAT FOR HAIL AS IT SHIFTS NEWD DURING THE MORNING. THE WARM SECTOR FARTHER SOUTH WILL LIKELY BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN TX. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS AREA MAY REMAIN CAPPED MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM AS WELL AS OVER SWRN TX. THIS ACTIVITY WILL INITIALLY BE WEST OF THE MOIST AXIS AND HIGH BASED...BUT STORMS COULD INTENSIFY AS THEY DEVELOP INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF WRN TX. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. FARTHER NORTH OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP FROM NERN NM INTO WRN CO. THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AS IT DEVELOPS EWD ABOVE FRONTAL ZONE...BUT COULD POSE A THREAT FOR HAIL. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ...TN VALLEY INTO NC... FARTHER EAST...A FEW STORMS COULD DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF THE E-W FRONT WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SHALLOW FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SUGGESTS COVERAGE COULD BE LIMITED. A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL EXIST WITH ANY STORMS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP. ..DIAL.. 04/27/2012
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk_0730.html
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