MD 0592 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NERN NM…SERN CO…FAR SWRN KS…WRN TX/OK PANHANDLES
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0592
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0253 PM CDT THU APR 26 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NM...SERN CO...FAR SWRN KS...WRN TX/OK
PANHANDLES
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 261953Z - 262100Z
CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL BE POSSIBLE BY 21-22Z ACROSS THE
SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A PRIMARY THREAT
OF LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ISOLATED THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
VISIBLE/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW INFERRED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
SPREADING EWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS /DENOTED BY AN INCREASE IN
MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS/...AHEAD OF A COMPACT SHORTWAVE UPPER
TROUGH CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER AZ. A WEAKLY CONFLUENT SFC TROUGH
WAS ANALYZED AT 19Z FROM 20 E PUB...SWD TO CVS...ARCING BACK TO THE
ESE TO 20 N BGS. RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WAS LOCATED E OF
THIS FEATURE...AS REFLECTED IN SFC OBS BY MID 50S TO LOWER 60S F SFC
DEWPOINTS.
ANALYZED PRESSURE FALLS OF -2 TO -4 MB PER 2 HRS SUGGEST SFC LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THIS AFTERNOON OVER ERN CO...AND IS EXPECTED
TO RESULT IN INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SFC TROUGH. AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT CONTINUES TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW 80S...CINH
SHOULD ERODE AND SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED
TSTMS...INITIALLY FOCUSED ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED LEE SFC TROUGH.
MODERATE MIDLEVEL FLOW /SAMPLED 30-40 KTS AT 6 KM AGL/ ATOP ESELY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. PRIMARY THREATS
APPEAR TO INITIALLY BE LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS...WHILE TOR THREAT
SHOULD BE LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON BY DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING/HIGH
LCL HEIGHTS.
..ROGERS/THOMPSON.. 04/26/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...
LAT...LON 33800156 33750227 34230334 36220385 37530378 37990335
38130271 37740206 36790147 35900120 34210121 33800156
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0592.html
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