SPC MD 603

MD 0603 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR CNTRL KS…FAR N-CNTRL OK

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0603
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1015 AM CDT FRI APR 27 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL KS...FAR N-CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 271515Z - 271715Z

SUPERCELLS SHOULD FORM ALONG EWD SURGING DRYLINE IN CNTRL KS TO
PERHAPS N-CNTRL OK BY EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG LOW/DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AMIDST MODERATELY LARGE
BUOYANCY WILL LIKELY YIELD PRIMARY INITIAL THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADOES. THE PROBABILITY OF A TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE IS 95
PERCENT.

15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A 996 MB CYCLONE AROUND 30 SE GLD WITH A
SLOWLY ADVANCING WARM FRONT ARCING SEWD TOWARDS THE OZARK PLATEAU
AND A SURGING DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD INTO WRN OK. SHOWERS AND TSTMS
HAVE BEEN PREVALENT NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT WITH ABUNDANT STRATUS IN
THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR OVER MUCH OF KS. HOWEVER...STRONGER HEATING IS
OCCURRING IN NRN OK WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S AND CLOUD BREAKS APPEAR TO BE OCCURRING IN A NARROW
CORRIDOR FROM COMANCHE TO PAWNEE COUNTIES IN SWRN KS. MODIFIED 12Z
DDC RAOB AND MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT EVEN WITH MODEST
HEATING...THE STRENGTH OF THE FORCING WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR MINIMAL
INHIBITION ALONG THE DRYLINE BY MIDDAY.

ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL SLYS HAVE COMMENCED WEAKENING WITH SRN EXTENT IN
THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR /PER TIME SERIES OF HAVILAND KS
PROFILER/...0-1 KM SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN AOA 15 KT WITH STRONGER
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR RELEGATED ALONG AND NE OF THE WARM FRONT. WITH
EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40-50 KT AND MLCAPE EXPECTED TO APPROACH 2500
J/KG IN S-CNTRL KS/N-CNTRL OK...THIS SETUP WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES PRIMARILY IN
CNTRL KS.

..GRAMS.. 04/27/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   39169987 39399982 39589935 39659873 39489790 38899712
            38099678 36939674 36729711 36659744 36759810 36989874
            37689902 38369933 39059982 39169987

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