MD 1804 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SERN CO…SWRN KS…OK PANHANDLE…NRN TX PANHANDLE
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1804 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0233 PM CDT FRI AUG 24 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO...SWRN KS...OK PANHANDLE...NRN TX PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 241933Z - 242100Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER SERN CO...SWRN KS...THE OK PANHANDLE AND THE NRN TX PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. MARGINALLY SVR HAIL...STRONG WIND GUSTS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. WW IS UNLIKELY. DISCUSSION...MESOANALYSIS AT 19Z SHOWED AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER FAR SERN CO. STRONG SURFACE HEATING OCCURRING BENEATH A MIDLEVEL DRYSLOT ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE IS AIDING IN BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE AREA...WHILE MODEST SURFACE MOISTURE /UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S DEWPOINTS/ IS FOCUSED E AND N OF THE LOW. THE WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS COMBINED WITH 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 C/KM ARE RESULTING IN MLCAPE VALUES FROM 500-1500 J/KG. THIS ENVIRONMENT HAS FOSTERED THE INITIATION OF THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS OVER SERN CO...WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MOST PRONOUNCED...WHILE OTHER STORMS HAVE FORMED NEAR AND E OF COS. GIVEN THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND CONTINUED BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SERN CO INTO SWRN KS AND THE NRN TX PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. AREA VWP/S AND RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS VERY WEAK. THUS...AN ORGANIZED SVR WEATHER THREAT IS UNLIKELY. HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS MAY PULSE UP IN INTENSITY AND POSE A THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. IN ADDITION...SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL FAVOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ..GARNER/WEISS.. 08/24/2012 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... LAT...LON 35770232 36680317 37090407 38300472 38940382 38980094 37979996 35780048 35770232
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1804.html
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