Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2033

   Mesoscale Discussion 2033
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0501 PM CST Wed Dec 15 2021

   Areas affected...portions of far eastern Kansas into western
   Missouri and extreme northeast Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 564...

   Valid 152301Z - 160030Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 564
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Widespread damaging winds (including 65+ kt gusts) remain
   a concern across eastern Kansas into Missouri over the next few
   hours. A couple of tornadoes also remain possible.

   DISCUSSION...An intense squall line has developed across the
   Mid-Mississippi Valley and is approaching the KS/MO border with a 50
   kt forward speed. Several severe wind gusts (some around 65 kts)
   have been reported over the past hour or so. Given the 60+ kt
   synoptic-scale 925 mb flow occurring in proximity to the squall,
   downward momentum transport in the stronger storm cores embedded in
   the line will continue to support the potential for several
   additional severe gusts, with at least a few significant severe (65+
   kt) gusts expected over the next few hours. Transient supercell
   structures have also developed within the squall, with up to 400
   m2/s2 effective SRH residing ahead of the line, suggesting that a
   couple of tornadoes could also occur with the more sustained,
   dominant supercell structures.

   ..Squitieri/Hart.. 12/15/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...

   LAT...LON   36759786 39049623 40099569 40419468 40299355 39819288
               39039262 38209292 37439353 36869426 36629545 36549635
               36759786