SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2023 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible tonight over parts of the southern Plains, with a risk for large to very large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes. ...01z Update... Pronounced upper low is digging southeast into the Four Corners with high-level diffluent flow aloft now evident downstream over the southern High Plains. Robust deep convection is developing ahead of this feature, especially across the TX Panhandle into the Big Country west of Abilene. Over the next several hours LLJ will strengthen across west TX. This should aid southeast propagation of ongoing convection, in addition to new development along/north of the warm front. It appears an MCS will eventually evolve along the nose of the LLJ which should progress into northwest TX/southern OK later tonight. Shear remains strong and low-level moisture continues to increase into this region. Discrete supercells remain possible across this region, especially this evening, until storm mergers/MCS evolves. At that time a larger complex of storms should be the primary mode. Farther southeast, a weak short-wave trough is ejecting across southeast TX. This feature was partly responsible in the development of a small cluster of storms along the warm front between Austin and La Grange. This activity may struggle in the wake of the short wave, but convection should continue to lift north as the warm front advances inland. Primary focus for organized convection will be considerably northwest of this convection in proximity of the strengthening LLJ. ..Darrow.. 04/26/2023
