SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0805 PM CDT Wed Apr 05 2023 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...TENNESSEE VALLEY...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GULF COAST STATES... CORRECTED FOR WORDING ...SUMMARY... A marginal wind-damage threat will continue this evening for a couple more hours from the lower Great Lakes southwestward into the western Gulf Coast states. ...Western Pennsylvania/Western New York... The latest WSR-88D radar imagery from Pittsburgh shows a line of thunderstorms, with some embedded stronger cells, located from the eastern part of Lake Erie southward into western Pennsylvania and then southwestward into western West Virginia. Along and to the east of this corridor, the RAP has MLCAPE around 500 J/kg. In spite of the weak instability, the WSR-88D VWP from College Station has some speed and directional shear in the lowest 2 kilometer above ground level. This combined with 50 knot of westerly flow in the mid-levels is creating strong enough deep-layer shear for an isolated wind-damage threat. As the line progresses eastward across western Pennsylvania over the next few hours, a few damaging wind gusts will be possible. The more discrete cells further to the east across south-central Pennsylvania could also have a marginal tornado threat or potential for small hail. The threat could continue for another hour or two before diminishing. ...Central Appalachians/Tennessee Valley/Lower Mississippi Valley/Western Gulf Coast... Mosaic radar imagery across the eastern and southern United States, shows a relatively broad band of convection located from the central Appalachians to the western Gulf Coast. The storms are generally ahead of a front, except in southeast Texas where most of the convection is post-frontal. Along this band of storms, instability is generally weak. However, WSR-88D VWPs along this corridor show strong deep-layer shear, which is associated with the southeastern edge of a mid-level jet moving through the Upper Midwest. For this reason, a marginal wind-damage threat will be possible for a few more hours. ..Broyles.. 04/06/2023
