SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Thu Apr 06 2023 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging thunderstorm gusts and hail remain possible over parts of the Mid-Atlantic early this evening. A few strong gusts and hail will also be possible in parts of the western Gulf Coast. ...Mid-Atlantic... The latest WSR-88D radar data from Wakefield, Virginia shows a line of strong thunderstorms, oriented from southwest to northeast from north-central North Carolina to southern Maryland. The storms are located near a pre-frontal trough, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range. RAP forecast soundings in southeast Virginia early this evening show 0-6 km shear near 35 knots and 700-500 mb lapse rates around 7.0 C/km. This should be enough to continue a wind damage and hail threat for another hour or two. However, surface winds are veered ahead of the storms, and low-level lapse rates have become weak. This should result in a diminished threat as instability weakens this evening. ...Western Gulf Coast... The latest mosaic radar across the western gulf coast states show three relatively short line segments from the Texas Coastal Plain into southwest Louisiana. The storms in Texas are post-frontal with the storms in southwest Louisiana located near the front. In both areas, the RAP is estimating MUCAPE in the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range. RAP forecast soundings early this evening near Houston have a near surface inversion with strong effective shear, and 500-700 mb lapse rates near 7.0 C/km. This could be enough for hail with the stronger updrafts. Further to the east in southern Louisiana and southern Mississippi, the storms will be closer to surface-based. This suggests a marginal wind-damage threat will be possible along the leading edge of short multicell line segments. The threat may persist through much of the night, as a low-level jet moves northeastward from the from the upper Texas Coast into the lower Mississippi Valley. ..Broyles.. 04/07/2023
