SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible this evening across portions of the northern Plains. Hail is the primary risk. A few strong storms remain possible over the desert Southwest and later tonight over Missouri/Arkansas region. ...01z Update... Upper ridge is flattening across AB/SK early this evening in response to a short-wave trough that is progressing across these prairie Provinces. Southern extent of this feature will glance the international border region and warm advection is expected to aid a few strong/severe thunderstorms across the northern Plains this evening. Latest radar imagery supports this with isolated supercells now developing from Bottineau to Wells County ND. Hail will be the primary risk with these storms as they propagate slowly southeast. Have increased severe probabilities for hail to account for this regional risk. Southeasterly flow is deepening across the lower deserts of the Southwest this evening as a notable short-wave trough migrates west across the northern Baja/lower CO River Valley. While most convection is currently located over the higher terrain of AZ, gusty winds are possible with storms as they propagate slowly toward lower elevations. Later tonight, low-level warm advection is expected to aid elevated convection across the lower MO Valley. Convection has mostly dissipated across this region with only the carcass of the early-day MCS now evident over eastern MO. Seasonally strong northwesterly mid-level flow and veering winds with height suggest some organization is possible as southwesterly 850mb flow increases across eastern KS/northwestern MO. ..Darrow.. 08/01/2023
