SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Sat Aug 12 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon and evening across the Middle and Upper Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A shortwave trough will likely begin the period extended from the Upper Midwest southwestward into central KS, with an attendant jet streak of 50-70 kt mid-level flow. This shortwave is forecast to progress eastward throughout the day, with its attendant mid-level flow strengthening as it spreads eastward across the OH Valley. Surface pattern associated with this shortwave will complicated by the evolution of overnight thunderstorms, with the low-level moisture field influenced by this overnight activity as well. Current expectation is for destabilization to occur in the wake of the early morning storms from central IN/OH southward across KY by the early afternoon. Thunderstorm development is then anticipated as large-scale forcing for ascent with the approaching shortwave interacts with this now destabilized airmass. Aforementioned strong mid-level flow over the region will support organized updrafts and the potential for severe thunderstorms. Continued destabilization is anticipated downstream, with the severe threat likely persisting across WV into the northern Mid-Atlantic as the shortwave progresses eastward. In addition to this early evening thunderstorm threat, strong buoyancy is forecast to develop across southeast VA and northeast NC during the afternoon. Large-scale forcing for ascent will be negligible, but isolated thunderstorm development is still possible amid weak low-level convergence. Any storms that do form could produce strong downbursts and/or isolated hail. Isolated thunderstorm development is also possible along the front from the Mid-South into Middle TN. Convergence along the front will be modest, and this region will be displaced south from the better large-scale ascent. This should limit overall thunderstorm coverage. Strong buoyancy and moderate shear will support a severe threat with any storms that do develop. ..Mosier.. 08/12/2023
