SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Tue Aug 15 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO NEW JERSEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast this afternoon and evening from southern New England into the Southeast, and over the lower Great Lakes vicinity. Highest severe-thunderstorm coverage is expected from the southern Delmarva vicinity into North Carolina. ...Southern New England to the Southeast... A cold front -- trailing from a low progged to lie across the northern New Jersey vicinity -- will shift gradually eastward across the East Coast states, and southeastward across the Southeast, through the afternoon and evening hours. Daytime heating of the moist pre-frontal boundary layer will result in ample destabilization to support isolated to scattered storm development by early afternoon. With a belt of enhanced low- to mid-level southwesterlies, locally organized storms are expected to evolve, some capable of producing severe-caliber hail and/or strong wind gusts near severe levels. Greatest risk appears likely to evolve during the late afternoon hours, from southern New Jersey to North Carolina, where the most favorable CAPE/shear overlap should reside. Afterward, storms should begin to diminish into the evening with the onset of diurnal cooling, with any remnant convection then moving offshore overnight. ...Lower Great Lakes region... As an upper trough advances eastward across the Ohio Valley toward the Lower Great Lakes region, daytime heating beneath cooling mid-level temperatures will support modest destabilization. Though surface reflection of the upper system will remain weak, ascent should be sufficient to support scattered, low-topped showers and thunderstorms from northeastern Ohio across the Lower Great Lakes/Finger Lakes region and into adjacent portions of Pennsylvania. While limited shear should temper severe potential, a few stronger storms may become briefly severe, with marginal hail and gusty winds capable of producing tree damage the primary risks. ..Goss/Lyons.. 08/15/2023
