Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND THE OZARKS INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may develop Friday over portions of the Great Lakes into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, and potentially across parts of the Ozarks into the central/southern Plains. Damaging winds and occasional large hail should be the main threats. ...Great Lakes into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and Mid-South... A mid/upper-level trough will move slowly eastward across parts of the Great Lakes, Midwest, and OH Valley on Friday. A belt of enhanced mid-level flow should be present from the east-central Plains to parts of the mid MS Valley into the OH Valley. Related deep-layer shear should be sufficient for some updraft organization with thunderstorms that can develop through the period. A weak surface low should likewise move slowly eastward over the Upper Great Lakes vicinity. A weak front/wind shift is forecast to extend south-southwestward from this surface low. Extensive convection will probably be ongoing Friday morning across the OH Valley vicinity. Some intensification of morning storms may occur through the day, though the primary severe threat is expected with separate thunderstorms that will develop in the wake of early-day convection during the afternoon and evening. Diurnal heating of a rather moist low-level airmass across a broad area will support pockets of moderate to locally strong instability by late afternoon across parts of the Midwest and OH/TN Valleys. Moderate mid-level flow will support sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization, and a conditionally favorable severe environment should eventually develop over a broad region near/ahead of the front. However, details of thunderstorm initiation and evolution remain rather unclear, due to the influence of morning convection and generally weak low-level convergence near the surface front. However, a few stronger cells/clusters may evolve during the afternoon and evening, posing a threat of damaging winds and severe hail. Greater severe probabilities may eventually be needed, if confidence increases in the location of one or more favored corridors of severe potential within the broader Marginal Risk area. ...Ozarks into the Central/Southern Plains... The trailing portion of the cold front should extend from southern MO into southern KS/northern OK by late Friday afternoon. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development may occur in the vicinity of the front, with some signal for convection to persist into Friday night as it moves east-southeastward. Other isolated activity may develop across the central High Plains in eastern CO into western KS. Moderate to strong buoyancy and supportive deep-layer shear across these areas should foster a threat of isolated strong/damaging gusts and large hail with the more robust storms from late Friday afternoon through the evening. ...Northern High Plains... High-based convection may develop over the northern Rockies in advance of a mid-level shortwave trough, and subsequently move across the northern High Plains. Low-level moisture and instability are forecast to remain limited, but steepened low-level lapse rates could allow for isolated strong/gusty winds as this activity moves east-northeastward through the early evening. At this point, the overall severe threat appears too isolated/marginal to include low severe wind probabilities. ..Gleason.. 08/15/2024
SPC Aug 15, 2024 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
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