SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2023 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY AND THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Sparse damaging gusts remain possible across parts of the Southeast this evening. An instance of strong gusts, hail, or a tornado also remain possible across parts of the Mid Atlantic and Lower Hudson Valley. ...Synopsis... A line of thunderstorms, with a history of damaging wind gusts and isolated severe hail, continues to impinge on the Atlantic Coastline this evening, with an overall waning in severe potential and thunderstorm coverage noted. Nonetheless, the boundary layer ahead of ongoing storms across some areas of the Southeast and the Mid Atlantic/Hudson Valley remains buoyant and may support a couple instances of severe weather before dissipating tonight. ...Southeast to the Atlantic Coastline... A line of gradually weakening thunderstorms trailing the surface lee trough continue to approach the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic. Ahead of these storms, temperatures remain above 80 F, fostering up to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE in spots. Though vertical shear is weak, the remaining buoyancy may still support a damaging gust or two before storms move offshore or diminish altogether tonight. ...Mid Atlantic into the Hudson Valley... A pronounced 700-500 mb trough continues to overspread the northeast, with 50+ kt 500 mb winds and cooler temperatures aloft prevailing over the Mid Atlantic and Lower Hudson Valley. As such, 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE remains across areas where minimal convective contamination has taken place. The stronger mid-level flow aloft is contributing to 40-50 kts of speed-driven, effective bulk shear and associated elongated hodographs (shown by recent regional VADs). Therefore, any storms that can mature/intensify and become sustained may produce a damaging gust, instance of hail, or a brief tornado before the boundary layer sufficiently decouples tonight in favor of a diminished severe threat. ..Squitieri.. 08/16/2023
