SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Wed Aug 03 2022 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few localized areas of gusty winds are possible over portions of the Great Basin to Four Corners states, and from the Ozarks into the Northeast. ...Synopsis/Discussion... An upper high will build over the central High Plains Thursday, with relatively weak flow aloft across most of the CONUS. The exception will be from the Pacific Northwest into the Dakotas, as the base of a shortwave trough moves across MT. Low pressure will be focused over SK during the day, with westerlies generally resulting in weakly unstable conditions across MT where strong heating may lead to a few high-based storms. At this time, weak instability at or below 500 J/kg is expected to yield primarily non-severe storms over central MT after 21Z. To the east, a warm and moist air mass will exist from the Ozarks into the Northeast, with various clusters of storms along and south of a stationary front. Given the generally weakening upper flow regime and rising heights, concentrated areas of severe storms are currently not anticipated. However, scattered storm coverage is likely from the OH Valley into western NY during the afternoon, near a weak and elongated surface trough. Other storms may form over the Appalachians, and a few strong sub-severe gusts appear likely during the peak heating hours. ..Jewell.. 08/03/2022
