SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Thu Aug 03 2023 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO WESTERN IOWA AND MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central Plains to the Lower Missouri/Middle Mississippi Valley vicinity on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper shortwave trough will develop eastward across portions of the northern/central Plains and the Upper MS/Lower MO Valley vicinity on Friday. At the surface, a low will track east/southeast from SD to IA, and trailing cold front will develop southeast across the central Plains toward IA/MO. While there are some timing/spatial differences in both upper level and surface features across various guidance, the overall pattern supports increased severe-thunderstorm potential ahead of the surface low/front across portions of the central Plains toward the MO Valley. Another factor posing some uncertainty is possible ongoing convection Saturday morning across KS into MO. This early activity may suppress convection for much of the day until the cold front begins to surge southeast by late afternoon/early evening. While this introduces some timing uncertainty, a very moist and unstable airmass will reside across the region. Thunderstorms developing ahead of the cold front will pose a risk for large hail and damaging gusts. During the evening/overnight an increasing southwesterly low-level jet may aid in maintaining a severe MCS eastward across the MO Valley, toward the Mid-MS Valley by Sunday morning. Some tornado potential also may exist closer to the surface low. Given the uncertainties mentioned above, the severe area may shift some in subsequent outlooks as details become better resolved. ..Leitman.. 08/03/2023
