SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Thu Aug 31 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A closed upper low initially centered along/near the northern CA Coast Saturday morning is forecast to gradually evolve into an open wave while moving slowly eastward across the Pacific Northwest and CA through the period. A belt of enhanced south-southwesterly mid-level flow should be maintained on the eastern side of this upper trough over parts of central CA into the northern Great Basin and interior Pacific Northwest. Greater low-level moisture, characterized by at least mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints, will likely remain confined to parts of southeastern CA, AZ, and southern NV through the day. More limited moisture is expected farther north into the Great Basin and portions of the interior Pacific Northwest, where perhaps low to mid 50s surface dewpoints may be present. Deep-layer shear strong enough to support organized updrafts will probably be confined to areas beneath the mid-level jet across parts of northeastern NV, eastern OR, and southern ID. The potential for substantial destabilization across this area remains in doubt owing to possible antecedent precipitation and cloud cover hindering diurnal heating to some extent. Given these potentially limiting factors, have not included low severe probabilities across this region at this time. But, some strong convection appears possible given the forecast strength of the mid-level flow. ..Gleason.. 08/31/2023
