Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Thu Aug 31 2023 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... Prominent upper ridging over the central CONUS should gradually become suppressed from Day 4/Sunday into early next week as an upper trough over the western states ejects northeastward across the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest. Severe potential across the CONUS should remain low Sunday with modest low-level moisture across the Great Basin limiting instability. Some severe threat may eventually materialize across parts of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest from late Day 5/Monday into Day 6/Tuesday. While low-level moisture should initially be limited across these areas, a narrow corridor of greater instability may develop along/near a surface cold front in this time frame. Any appreciable severe potential would likely remain tied to this southeastward-advancing front through the middle of next week. However, the de-amplifying nature of the ejecting upper trough and some timing differences in its placement suggest that predictability remains too low to include any 15% severe areas.
