SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0156 AM CDT FRI MAY 04 2012

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL ENTER THE PAC NW LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL LEAD TO STRENGTHENING MIDLEVEL SWLYS OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN W. OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...A MIDLEVEL IMPULSE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MORNING...AND THEN EXIT DOWNSTREAM
INTO KS/OK BY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
BECOME POSITIONED OVER WRN KS DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHILE A DRYLINE
TRAILING SWD INTO NWRN TX SHARPENS SIGNIFICANTLY AS DEEP BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING TAKES PLACE ACROSS ERN NM AND W TX.

...ERN NM AND W TX...
AS ALLUDED TO IN THE SYNOPSIS...DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING IS
FORECAST TO OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARM
INTO THE 90S...WHICH WILL FAVOR MIN RH VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
PROBABLE AS SUSTAINED WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH.

...NRN AZ...SRN/ERN UT...WRN CO...
THE COMBINATION OF STRENGTHENING MIDLEVEL SWLYS AND STEEPENING
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEEDS FROM 15-20 MPH OVER
PORTIONS OF NRN AZ...SRN/ERN UT...AND WRN CO. IN ADDITION...MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LARGE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS ON
THE ORDER OF 60F WILL DEVELOP...WHICH WILL YIELD CRITICALLY LOW RH
VALUES NEAR 10 PERCENT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR AN ELEVATED TO
LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.

..GARNER.. 05/04/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy1.html