SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0314 AM CDT THU MAY 03 2012

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
THE MAIN UPPER FEATURE WILL BE POTENT NWRN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND
THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE NRN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.  IN THE LOW LEVELS...A SURFACE LOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER N-CNTRL UT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN DURING THE PERIOD.  FARTHER E...ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL BE
NEAR THE KS/CO BORDER WITH AN ATTENDANT DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD
THROUGH THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.  ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE ERN GREAT BASIN/WRN CO AND OVER A
PORTION OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.

...MUCH OF UT / NRN AZ / WRN CO...
STRONGER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW /40-55 KTS AT H5/ WILL MOVE OVERHEAD THE
AREA BY FRIDAY /D2/.  MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS INCREASING FLOW THROUGH
ALL LEVELS...WITH SUSTAINED SURFACE SWLY/S INCREASING TO AROUND 20
MPH.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SHOW STEEP 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES
WHICH WILL SUPPORT RH FALLING INTO THE TEENS BY PEAK HEATING.  AN
UPGRADE TO CRITICAL MAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR A PORTION OF THIS
REGION IF UNCERTAINTY DECREASES AND IT SEEMS LIKELY WINDS WILL
BECOME SUSTAINED IN THE 20-25 MPH RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

...ERN NM / NWRN TX...
THE MAINTENANCE OF A LEE TROUGH OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL
SUPPORT THE CONTINUATION OF AT LEAST ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS REGION TO THE W OF A DRYLINE.  MODEL
VARIABILITY EXISTS REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF SURFACE - 5 KFT
FLOW...INTRODUCING UNCERTAINTY FOR SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS.
NONETHELESS...BACKGROUND MEAN FLOW WITHIN THIS LAYER WILL GENERALLY
SUPPORT SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 MPH...WITH SINGLE DIGIT RH/S AS
TEMPS WARM INTO THE 90S DURING PEAK HEATING.

..SMITH.. 05/03/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy2.html