SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0417 PM CDT Wed Aug 02 2023 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z ...Dry Thunderstorms - Northern Great Basin into the Northwest... A plume of monsoonal moisture will be in place across parts of the northern Great Basin into the Northwest on Days 3-4/Friday-Saturday. This midlevel moisture atop a warm/deeply mixed boundary layer will yield sufficient instability for high-based thunderstorms -- aided by a series of subtle/low-amplitude midlevel impulses and possible MCVs crossing the region. 0.5-0.7 inch PW and inverted-V thermodynamic profiles in central OR into northeast CA/northwest NV will favor isolated dry thunderstorms capable of lightning-induced ignitions on Days 3-4/Friday-Saturday. Deeper monsoonal moisture over eastern OR will promote a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms, with storms becoming increasingly wet into western ID. The primary concern with this activity is lightning strikes along the peripheries of rain cores. Strong/erratic outflow winds are possible with thunderstorms each day given the deep/dry sub-cloud layer. ...Central Texas... Slightly weaker sustained surface winds on Day 3/Friday (compared to previous days) could limit the fire-weather threat briefly over central TX. With that said, continued 100 deg afternoon temperatures and critically dry fuels will still support elevated fire-weather conditions. Thereafter, an increase in surface winds is possible on Days 4-5/Saturday-Sunday, leading to increasing fire-weather concerns. Currently, confidence in the development of critical conditions is too low to add probabilities, though highlights may eventually be needed. ...Southwest... Despite persistent thunderstorm activity across the Southwest over the last week, rainfall accumulations have generally been minimal with the exception of northwest AZ. By Day 3/Friday into next week, a warming/drying trend is expected across the Southwest, which combined with strengthening winds could result in increasing fire-weather concerns. Continued model differences on the overlap of strong winds/low RH over dry fuels casts uncertainty on where the fire-weather threat will be maximized, though probabilities/highlights could eventually be needed. ..Weinman.. 08/02/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
