SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes will be possible through tonight across coastal North Carolina and the Outer Banks. ...Synopsis... A surface low continues to deepen just offshore of the NC/SC border, and is poised to drift northward along the Atlantic coastline as a mid-level trough becomes negatively tilted over the Carolina Piedmont region. The onshore advection of low-level moisture will continue to support marginal destabilization along the Outer Banks of North Carolina amid a highly sheared environment. Here, conditions will continue to support isolated severe potential. ...Far Eastern North Carolina into far southeast Virginia... Ahead of the surface low, an effective warm front extends across the easternmost counties of North Carolina, and may translate another 50 nautical miles inland to support 500+ J/kg MLCAPE, driven mainly by mid 60s F dewpoints beneath 5.5-6 C/km mid-level lapse rates. The 00Z MHX observed sounding showed low 60s F dewpoints and no CAPE. However, the 00Z MHX sounding and VAD showed an impressively large, curved hodograph, with over 500 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH present. Given the very strong low-level shear, any storm that can ingest surface-based parcels with marginal buoyancy could pose a threat for a tornado or damaging gust tonight, before the surface low passes just offshore of VA and the warm sector moves out to sea. ..Squitieri.. 12/18/2023
