SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND...AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolate strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the northern Mid-Atlantic into New England, as well as the central High Plains, on Wednesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper troughing is forecast to extend from Ontario through the Upper Midwest early Wednesday morning, before gradually shifting eastward throughout the day and ending the period extended from western Quebec into the Mid MS Valley. Enhanced mid-level flow will extend through the southern and eastern periphery of this upper trough, stretching from the OH Valley into the Northeast throughout the period. Surface low attendant to this upper trough will likely be over Quebec early Wednesday, with an extensive cold front stretching from this low southwestward into the northern portions of the southern Plains. This front is forecast to progress eastward across the Northeast, southeastward across the OH and TN Valleys, and southward across the southern Plains throughout the day. A moist and buoyant airmass will precede this front, and thunderstorms are likely as it progresses downstream. Much of this front will be displaced south of the stronger mid-level flow. The only exception is from the northern Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast, where moderate cross-boundary mid-level flow is likely. This will result in an environment supporting strong to severe thunderstorms, with damaging gusts as the primary threat. Numerous to widespread thunderstorms appear likely across the central Rockies as well, supported by increased mid-level moisture and northwesterly flow within the western periphery of an extensive upper ridge covering the western CONUS. Post-frontal upslope flow will bring favorable low-level moisture into the central High Plains. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may result as storms move off the higher terrain into the moderately moist and buoyant airmass downstream. Damaging gusts will be the primary severe threat. ..Mosier.. 07/15/2024
