Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to show that the upper ridging expected to be in place across the western CONUS early D4/Thursday will persist through the weekend and into early next week while also building into western Canada. Upper troughing is expected to persist across the central and eastern CONUS through the weekend as well. Flow aloft within these features will be modest, but some moderate northwesterly flow aloft is anticipated between these two features across the High Plains. A cold front will likely stretch from the Mid-Atlantic through north Texas. This front is expected to become increasingly diffuse on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday as it moves only slightly southward. Thunderstorms are possible along this boundary on each day, but weak vertical shear should keep the severe potential low. Aforementioned northwesterly flow aloft will help support some severe potential across the High Plains, where modest low-level moisture beneath vertically veering wind profiles could support a few strong to severe storms each afternoon on D4/Thursday through D6/Saturday. After D6/Saturday, the upper ridge may shift westward, placing the northwesterly flow over the higher terrain and likely limited the severe potential.
