SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Sat Jul 01 2023 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR A SMALL PART OF SOUTHERN INDIANA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE TX PERMIAN BASIN... ...SUMMARY... Storms capable of damaging wind gusts and isolated hail will affect parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley this evening. Isolated strong/severe storms also remain possible across parts of the northern High Plains, and also the Texas Permian Basin region. ...Missouri eastward through parts of the Ohio Valley... Multiple storm clusters are ongoing this evening from southern IN into western KY, and also across parts of western/northern MO. The IN/KY storms have a history of producing wind damage and sporadic measured severe gusts, and some damaging-wind threat may continue downstream into parts of southeast IN, southwest OH, and northern KY, where moderate buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear will continue to support organized convection through the evening. The influence of outflow from convection that has moved into parts of the Southeast will should limit the southward extent of the remaining severe threat. See MCD 1382 for more information regarding the short-term threat. Farther west, strong thunderstorms have developed across parts of west-central/northwest MO, immediately in advance of a mid/upper-level shortwave trough moving across northeast KS. Deep-layer shear is not overly strong (effective shear generally less than 30 kt), but moderate buoyancy and favorable large-scale ascent attendant to the shortwave will help to sustain an isolated severe hail/wind risk through this evening into parts of central/eastern MO and potentially western IL. ...Permian Basin region of TX... Strong storms are ongoing near Midland/Odessa and vicinity this evening near the confluence of several surface boundaries. Deep-layer flow is rather weak, but veering wind profiles are supporting effective shear of 25-30 kt, sufficient for a few strong multicells in the presence of moderate buoyancy. Isolated hail and severe gusts will be possible into mid evening before storms weaken later tonight. ...Eastern MT into northwest ND... Scattered high-based storms will likely continue from eastern MT into northwest ND this evening. Deep-layer shear is rather weak, but steep low-level lapse rates and MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg may support a few outflow-dominant cells/clusters with a threat of localized severe gusts before storms weaken late tonight. ..Dean.. 07/02/2023
