SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...SOUTHEAST...DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Mid-Atlantic states, Southeast, Desert Southwest, and the central High Plains on Friday. ...Mid-Atlantic states... Scattered showers/thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Friday morning across the northern half of this region as a lobe of ascent associated with a mid-level trough moves through the area. In wake of this activity and located to the south of stronger forcing for ascent, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop near a front as it moves east. Richer low-level moisture is forecast near the PA/NJ border south into the Chesapeake Bay vicinity and result in moderate buoyancy. Somewhat elongated hodographs would support organized multicells and marginal supercells. The main limiting factor is deep-layer forcing for ascent becoming displaced away from the region coincident with peak heating, and uncertainty associated with destabilization owing to early day clouds/convective debris. ...High Plains... Model guidance indicates strong heating and orographic ascent will favor isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing Friday from eastern WY southward into the Raton Mesa vicinity. It appears a minimum of thunderstorm coverage may exist south of the Palmer Divide to near the CO/NM border. Steep low to mid-level lapse rates and strengthening mid to high-level northwesterly flow with height may act to organize a few of the stronger cores. Isolated large hail/severe gusts will be the primary risks. This activity will likely wane during the evening as it moves further south-southeastward into the High Plains. ...Deep South into eastern OK... Showers/thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts of OK/AR during the morning associated with weakening storms moving east from southern KS/northern OK. An isolated severe risk could linger into the morning across parts of AR before additional storms develop farther east along a frontal zone. Models indicate strong heating south of the boundary with MLCAPE 2500+ J/kg. Some enhancement of westerly flow in the low to mid levels may aid in storm intensity during the afternoon. Damaging gusts will be the primary hazard before these storms dissipate during the evening. ...Southeast AZ... Isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms are forecast to develop near the high terrain late Friday afternoon. Large surface temperature-dewpoint spreads and a dry sub-cloud layer would favor evaporatively cooled downdrafts. Some of the stronger cores may result in isolated severe gusts. ..Smith.. 07/20/2023
