SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE DEEP SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday across portions of the Deep South. Damaging gusts are the primary hazard with the stronger storms. ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level anticyclone will be centered over the Interior West while a broad, large-scale mid-level trough resides over the eastern CONUS. Surface high pressure will extend from OK east through the MS Valley and into the OH Valley. A residual frontal zone will be draped west to east from TX east through the north Gulf Coast states. ...Deep South... The aforementioned boundary and sea-breeze front will be a focus for diurnal storm development on Saturday. A belt of moderate westerly mid-level flow will move through the base of the larger-scale mid-level trough. Rich low-level moisture (dewpoints into the 70s deg F) and strong heating will result in a strongly unstable airmass by early-mid afternoon. Scattered to numerous storms are possible. Forecast soundings show PW around 2 inches which will favor strong to severe gusts with the more intense wet microbursts. This activity will likely dissipate by mid evening. ...NE... Appreciably strong northwesterly 500-mb flow will overspread a boundary layer during the afternoon featuring steep low- to mid-level lapse rates. Although moisture quality will be relatively limited, isolated thunderstorms may develop Saturday afternoon near a weak wind shift/surface trough. A few strong gusts are possible with the stronger storms. If confidence increases or is maintained for another outlook cycle, low-severe probabilities may be introduced. ..Smith.. 07/20/2023
