SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Wed Jul 20 2022 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Damaging thunderstorm gusts, isolated hail, and perhaps a tornado remain possible this evening across the Ohio Valley. ...01z Update... Upper low has advanced into Lower MI early this evening with a trough extending southwest toward the lower OH Valley region. Several forced line segments have materialized ahead of the upper low with the majority of organized convection currently noted across ON. South of lake Erie, a loosely organized squall line, roughly 150mi long, is progressing across northern OH and should propagate into western portions of PA later this evening as the short wave advances downstream. 00z sounding from PIT exhibits SBCAPE around 2400 J/kg with ample shear for the maintenance of this convection as it propagates east. Farther southwest into the lower OH Valley, activity is considerably more isolated where the influence of the upper trough is notably weaker. However, buoyancy is seasonally strong with 00z sounding from ILN displaying around 4500 J/kg SBCAPE, but decidedly weaker surface-6km shear, though ample for organized updrafts. Latest radar/satellite imagery suggest updrafts are strengthening a bit across southern IL, and additional convection may yet evolve along the lesser-forced boundary along the OH River. Wind remains the primary risk with this activity. ..Darrow.. 07/21/2022
