SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Tue Jul 04 2023 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...AND SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe storms are forecast from the northern High Plains southeastward to Kansas and Oklahoma. ...Northern High Plains southeastward to Arkansas... Thunderstorms -- and possibly some accompanying severe threat -- may be ongoing early in the period across portions of the Oklahoma/Arkansas vicinity. As this convection shifts east-southeastward through the day, focus will shift westward into the northern and central High Plains. Here, along the trailing/remnant portion of a cold front backed north-south into the higher terrain, an axis of 50s surface dewpoints, combined with daytime heating, will yield a zone of moderate afternoon destabilization. As the airmass destabilizes, at least isolated storm development is expected, with storms then gradually increasing in coverage and spreading eastward toward lower elevations as a southerly low-level jet develops through the evening. Meanwhile, with the belt of moderate mid-level westerlies persisting atop this region, shear favorable for supercells is expected -- particularly as the low-level winds intensify beginning in early evening. As such, large hail is expected to accompany these storms, along with locally damaging gusts and potential for a tornado or two. With time, as storms grow upscale, risk should transition somewhat toward wind, though hail will also be possible locally. Risk may continue well into the overnight hours. ..Goss.. 07/04/2023
