SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed Jul 05 2023 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe storms are forecast from the northern High Plains southeastward to Kansas and Oklahoma. ...Central and northern High Plains/central Plains... Ongoing thunderstorms -- in the form of an at least loosely organized MCS -- will likely be ongoing at the start of the period across portions of southern Kansas/Oklahoma and perhaps the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. Local severe potential -- mainly in the form of damaging wind gusts -- may accompany a couple of the strongest storms, before convection diminishes through the morning. Later, as southeasterly post-front upslope flow continues across the High Plains, daytime heating of an amply moist boundary layer will result in moderate destabilization -- likely from eastern Wyoming and adjacent southwestern South Dakota and the Nebraska Panhandle southward into the southern High Plains. Subsequent/isolated storm development is therefore expected by mid to late afternoon across this region, and perhaps as far west as southwestern Montana. With a belt of moderate (averaging around 30 kt) mid-level westerlies from the Intermountain West into the central Plains, atop low-level southeasterly flow across the High Plains, shear sufficient for organized/rotating storms will be present. As a result, expect supercells to develop, with attendant risks for large hail and locally damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado or two. Overnight, storms may grow upscale and move off the higher terrain as an MCS -- with the most likely corridor being across Kansas. Should this occur, continued severe risk -- including damaging winds and some hail -- would likely continue into the overnight hours. ..Goss.. 07/05/2023
