SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Wed Jul 05 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA...AND INTO WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe storms are expected across central portions of the country on Friday. ...High Plains eastward across the central Plains.. Thunderstorms -- and possibly local severe risk -- should be ongoing at the start of the period across the Plains, where low-level warm advection/QG ascent will be focused. As a mid-level short-wave trough, embedded in the enhanced belt of westerlies across the central U.S., shifts across the Plains during the day, a weak/associated surface low should also traverse the Kansas/Oklahoma vicinity, and eventually approach/reach Missouri late. While isolated storms develop across the High Plains during the afternoon, remnant storms ongoing over the Plains may locally redevelop/reintensify. By evening, strengthening of the low-level jet across the southern and into the central Plains should permit storms over the High Plains to shift eastward, as well as allow an increase in convection near and ahead of the weak surface low crossing the Kansas/Oklahoma vicinity. While details regarding convective evolution remain a bit nebulous, moderate instability across the area coincident with the enhanced mid-level flow, suggests potential for strong/severe storms. Risk should remain over the High Plains/Plains through the day, but will likely continue into the second half of the period and perhaps spread into the Missouri vicinity overnight. ..Goss.. 07/05/2023
