Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Thu Jul 06 2023 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Global models continue to exhibit reasonable large-scale pattern agreement through most of the medium-range period. With a deep mid-level cyclone progged to remain across the Ontario vicinity through the period, persistent cyclonic northwesterly/westerly flow aloft is expected across the High Plains/Plains through Day 8. This pattern also favors daily, southerly nocturnal low-level jet development across the southern Plains. Therefore, an overall kinematic scenario favoring severe storm development over the High Plains, and then upscale growth/MCS development with storms moving into the Plains overnight, will likely be maintained through the period. Given this persistent pattern, and prevalence of convective overturning/rain-cooled air existing each day across portions of the region, narrowing down more focused/favored areas for severe convection within the broader region remains difficult. Therefore, while an active period for severe weather appears likely to prevail -- particularly across the Plains region, no outlook areas are being included at this time due to areal predictability concerns.
