SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0800 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2012 VALID 010100Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OH/TN VALLEYS... ...SYNOPSIS... PRIMARY UPPER-AIR FEATURE FOR THIS OUTLOOK WILL BE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY AND VWP/PROFILER DATA FROM SERN KS NNEWD ACROSS NWRN MO TO EMBEDDED LOW OVER UPPER MS VALLEY. LOW ALOFT SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS WI TO NEAR WRN LM SHORE BY 12Z...WHILE TROUGH BECOMES MORE NEUTRALLY TILTED OVER WRN IL...ERN MO AND NERN AR. AS THIS OCCURS...SFC LOW -- ANALYZED AT 23Z INVOF SDF AND NEAR NRN END OF EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE BAND -- WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NNEWD TOWARD SERN LOWER MI/WRN LE. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL KY...WRN/MIDDLE TN...MUCH OF MS AND SRN LA...PRECEDED BY ONGOING CONVECTION AND ITS OVERNIGHT REMNANTS. WRN LIMB OF THIS FRONT -- DRAWN AT 23Z FROM NWRN LA ACROSS S-CENTRAL TX TO EXTREME NRN COAHUILA AND GDP REGION...SHOULD DECELERATE BUT STILL MOVE SLOWLY SWWD OVER TRANS-PECOS AND SRN NM...AND SWD ACROSS S TX. ...OH VALLEY REGION TO CENTRAL/ERN GULF COAST... OVERALL SVR THREAT REMAINS BUT IS DIMINISHING OVER THIS REGION AS AIR MASS BECOMES GRADUALLY MORE STABLE. MRGL SVR HAIL AND OCNL DAMAGING GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE. REF WWS 329...331...AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION. FARTHER S ACROSS MUCH OF AL AND GA...SVR POTENTIAL HAS BECOME MRGL...WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS OR HAIL STILL POSSIBLE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. ...TRANS-PECOS SEWD OVER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND S-CENTRAL TX... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE FORMED ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT OVER FAR W TX...WSW FST. SCATTERED TSTMS OVER MEX...MOVING SEWD OFF SERRANIAS DEL BURRO RANGE...MAY REACH RIO GRANDE VALLEY NW OF MFE AND SE OF DRT BEFORE DISSIPATING...AMIDST AMIDST WLY-WNWLY MEAN-WIND AND DEEP-SHEAR VECTORS SUPPORTING SOME STORM ORGANIZATION AND EWD TRANSLATION. OCNL LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS NEAR SVR LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE. REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1001 FOR MORE NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE ON CONVECTION OVER FAR W TX. ...CO/NM ROCKIES... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN LOOSE N-S CORRIDOR FROM S-CENTRAL CO TO CENTRAL NM...AND WILL POSE RISK OF ISOLATED SVR HAIL/GUSTS FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING. ACTIVITY IS MOVING SEWD TO SWD OVER PROGRESSIVELY DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER OF ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATIONS...CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEW POINTS UPPER 30S TO MID 40S F BENEATH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND SUPPORTING 500-900 J/KG MLCAPE. ENVIRONMENT ALSO IS CHARACTERIZED BY 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES...AND FROM TAD AREA SWD...ENOUGH EFFECTIVE SRH TO SUPPORT TRANSIENT SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTER. COVERAGE/DURATION WILL REMAIN BE TOO LIMITED FOR CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK. ..EDWARDS.. 06/01/2012
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_0100.html
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