SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1223 AM CDT FRI JUN 01 2012 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SERN CO/SWRN KS AND THE OK/NRN TX PANHANDLE REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LOW FORECAST INVOF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY NWD INTO ONTARIO THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT OF THE SWD-EXTENDING TROUGH...AS SHORT-WAVE ENERGY S OF THE LOW REMAINS PROGRESSIVE. THIS PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT OFFSHORE...WITH THE FRONT LINGERING ACROSS FL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE TRAILING PORTION OF THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND WNWWD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO NWRN TX. FARTHER W...A BELT OF FAST WSWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...ON THE SERN FRINGE OF A LARGE GULF OF AK VORTEX. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WITHIN THIS FLOW FIELD -- PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION DURING THE PERIOD -- WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT EWD ACROSS ID/MT/WY THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS REGION INTO OK... DAYTIME HEATING OF A SOMEWHAT MOIST POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WILL RESULT MODEST AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION. WITH A COMBINATION OF SELY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND ENHANCED ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER VORT MAX SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT. WITH OVERALL FLOW FIELD PROGGED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...SEVERE POTENTIAL IS PROGGED TO REMAIN ISOLATED AT BEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DURING THE EVENING -- AN INCREASING SLY/SSELY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL ACT TO BOTH MODESTLY STRENGTHEN THE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AS WELL AS ENHANCE ISENTROPIC ASCENT...WHICH MAY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION. ATTM...SOME POTENTIAL STILL APPEARS TO EXIST THAT EVENTUAL UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN MCS IS POSSIBLE...WHICH WOULD LIKELY MOVE SEWD OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS TOWARD OK. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT RISK FORECAST -- PRIMARILY FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. ...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION... VERY MODEST AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION NEAR/AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT. WITH 40 TO 60 KT WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW PROGGED ACROSS THIS REGION...DEGREE OF SHEAR MAY PARTIALLY OFFSET THE MODEST INSTABILITY...ALLOWING A FEW STORMS TO STRENGTHEN AND BECOME CAPABLE OF LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL. THIS THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...BEFORE CONVECTION DIURNALLY WEAKENS. ..GOSS.. 06/01/2012
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_0600.html
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