SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0230 AM CDT FRI JUN 01 2012 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z ...SYNOPSIS... AS A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. CONTINUES EWD AND A SECOND LARGE SYSTEM DIGS/EXPANDS ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC...RIDGING SHOULD INTENSIFY ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY. A THE SURFACE...A GENERALLY NONDESCRIPT PATTERN IS FORECAST...THOUGH A FRONTAL ADVANCE INTO CA AND VICINITY IS FORECAST AHEAD OF THE PAC TROUGH. ...KS AND VICINITY... DESPITE LARGE-SCALE RIDGING...ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST WITHIN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION AS DIURNAL HEATING AIDS IN MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION. WHILE LACK OF APPRECIABLE CAPE AND VERY LIMITED STORM COVERAGE SUGGESTS VERY LITTLE SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AN EVENING INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE...AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET DIURNALLY REDEVELOPS. AS EXISTING CONVECTION SHIFTS SEWD AND ENCOUNTERS A MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO THE E ACROSS KS AND VICINITY...EXPANSION INTO AN MCS -- ACCOMPANIED BY A LOW-PROBABILITY THREAT FOR HAIL AND/OR WIND -- APPEARS POSSIBLE. ...UPPER OH VALLEY... AFTERNOON HEATING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER BENEATH COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES/STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE NERN U.S. UPPER LOW WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT OF MODEST/LOW-TOPPED CAPE ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS -- COMBINED WITH MODERATELY STRONG NWLY FLOW ALOFT -- MAY RESULT IN A FEW ROBUST STORMS...AND ASSOCIATED/ISOLATED POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL HAIL. ANY THREAT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED GIVEN THE VERY STRONG DIURNAL COMPONENT TO CONVECTIVE INTENSITY. ..GOSS.. 06/01/2012
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk_0730.html
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