SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1231 PM CDT FRI JUN 01 2012 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WRN/SWRN OK...NWRN TX AND TX PANHANDLE TO SWRN KS AND SERN CO... ...SYNOPSIS... A DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS THE NRN ATLANTIC AND GREENLAND IS EXPECTED TO SLOW EWD PROGRESSION OF A GREAT LAKES UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW AS IT MOVES INTO SRN ONTARIO. THE SWD EXTENDING TROUGH OVER THE ERN STATES WILL BEGIN TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT BY LATE SAT/EARLY SUN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY DIGGING SEWD THROUGH THE ERN DAKOTAS MOVES THROUGH THE TN VALLEY TO OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY 12Z SUN. FARTHER W...HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW LATE DAY 1 WILL TRACK THROUGH THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN. ...SWRN/WRN OK...NWRN TX AND TX PANHANDLE TO SWRN KS/SERN CO... MODELS SUGGEST WARM FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS SRN OK EXTENDING WWD TO A TRIPLE POINT ATTENDANT DRY LINE EXTENDING SWD FROM SWRN OK/ADJACENT SERN TX PANHANDLE SAT AFTERNOON...WITH A SYNOPTIC LOW LOCATED ALONG THE NM/TX BORDER. THE WARM FRONT MAY INITIALLY BE IDENTIFIED AS A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY ON THE SRN EXTENT OF ONGOING TSTMS OVER THE OK/TX PANHANDLES INTO OK AT THE START OF DAY 2. DESPITE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE RETURN TO ALONG AND S OF THE DEVELOPING WARM FRONT...STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /7.5-8.5 C PER KM/ SPREADING EWD ATOP THE MOISTENING/SURFACE HEATING WILL SUPPORT A MODERATELY-STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MUCAPE 2000-3000 J PER KG/. DESPITE NEUTRAL TO WEAK HEIGHT RISES...MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK MIDLEVEL IMPULSE WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AIDING IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. DESPITE WEAKER FORCING ALOFT WITH SWD EXTENT...STRONGER SURFACE HEATING INTO SWRN OK/NWRN TX SUGGESTS INHIBITION SHOULD BE REDUCED SUFFICIENTLY FOR AFTERNOON TSTM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY INVOF THE TRIPLE POINT AND EWD ALONG THE WARM FRONT INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL/SRN OK. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES...SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WITH LARGE HAIL...SOME VERY LARGE OVER THE TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN/SWRN OK WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST...AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...PART OF ERN ID/NWRN WY INTO CENTRAL/ERN MT... VERY MODEST AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION NEAR/AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT. WITH 40 TO 50 KT WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW PROGGED ACROSS THIS REGION...DEGREE OF SHEAR MAY PARTIALLY OFFSET THE MODEST INSTABILITY...ALLOWING A FEW STORMS TO STRENGTHEN AND BECOME CAPABLE OF LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL. THIS THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING ADVANCING TOWARD ERN MT...BEFORE CONVECTION DIURNALLY WEAKENS. ..PETERS.. 06/01/2012
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.html
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