Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... From Wednesday/D4 into Thursday/D5, an upper trough will move from Manitoba toward Hudson Bay, with the base of the trough shifting out of ND/MN. This wave will continue east/northeast into Quebec, flattening the ridge over the northeastern states. Meanwhile, upper troughing will exist over the Great Basin, with moderately cool temperatures aloft. Scattered storms will be likely along the trailing front from the central Plains into the upper Great Lakes, with perhaps a marginal severe risk given weaker shear and instability. Models indicate this western trough may emerge into the northern Plains Friday/D6 into Saturday/D7, providing perhaps 40 kt midlevel westerly winds and modest cooling aloft. Such a system may support areas of strong storms, but overall the threat does not appear particularly high. However, pockets of stronger instability could support scattered hail and wind.
